US Initial Jobless Claims — contract IJC_072526_210000
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 61% chance — more likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 61% right now.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on ForecastEx ↗Related markets
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Next target for the US interest rate (July)
The field is heavily concentrated on a rate hold at 76%, yet the 22% chance of a hike indicates genuine uncertainty, driven by the Fed chair's ambiguous signals and mixed global inflation data that could still tip the decision either way.
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Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026
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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
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2 outcomes