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Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

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Economics prediction markets & live odds — page 2 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Economics prediction markets

Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.

🔭 Compare economics odds across venues →

All Markets & equities 723 Growth & recession 286 Inflation 178 Monetary policy 106 Largest Companies 87 Jobs & labor 61 Gasoline Prices 42 Bitcoin Price Levels 15 Currency Exchange Rates 14 Headline 8 Gold Price Levels 7 Fiscal & trade 6

244 markets · page 2 of 11

Kalshi

Open

July 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: >063¢

6 outcomes

$41.4K Vol▼ 1pts3d

Polymarket

Open

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? — July Meeting

‹ Prev1234…11Next ›

Despite a 15-point surge in Yes probability over the past week, no relevant Fed or economic headlines appear in the provided data, leaving the move unexplained and potentially driven by unlisted factors.

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

$631K Vol▼ 6pts4mo

Futuur

Open

US Treasury 1-month yield on July 31?

The field is highly concentrated with three buckets (3.69-3.71, 3.75+, 3.72-3.74) capturing 89% of probability, showing strong expectations of a yield above 3.69. The most notable shift is the surge of the "3.75 or more" bucket to 30%, likely driven by oil-induced inflation fears that pushed longer-term yields to multi-month highs (CNBC, Jul 23).

3.69 to 3.7130¢

6 outcomes

$463 Vol▲ 0pts3d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Fed cut interest rates at the next FOMC meeting (July/Sept 2026)?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ724 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

InsightX

Open

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

The field is unusually concentrated for a Fed decision market, with only two viable outcomes, but the 61% 'Other' category masks a fragmented set of rate-path possibilities that could consolidate if a clear pattern emerges from upcoming data or Fed guidance.

Other61¢

2 outcomes

$568K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

How many dissenting votes at the July Fed meeting?

227¢

5 outcomes

$86K Vol▲ 0pts3d

Polymarket

Open

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Other71¢

9 outcomes

$532K Vol▼ 1pts3mo

Futuur

Open

United Kingdom’s interest rate at the end of 2026

The field is highly concentrated among three scenarios (3.25%, 3.50%, 3.75%) with 83% combined probability, reflecting expectations of only modest cuts from the current 3.75% rate, but the single biggest recent shift was the Bank of England's June 18 hold at 3.75%, which likely solidified 3.75% as a viable end-year outcome and dampened hopes for aggressive easing (CNBC, Jun 18).

Greater than 3.75%28¢

5 outcomes

$458 Vol▲ 0pts4mo

InsightX

Open

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

The market is essentially a binary bet between three consecutive holds (28%) and any other outcome (72%), with the high 'Other' share reflecting broad uncertainty about the path beyond July, not just the July meeting itself.

Other71¢

2 outcomes

$532K Vol▼ 1pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ5K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Kalshi

Open

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? — Lorie Logan

Yes61¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

$6.8K Vol▲ 0pts3d

Polymarket

Open

Will Powell Industries (POWL) beat quarterly earnings?

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

$6.4K Vol▲ 3pts8d

Futuur

Open

US basic interest rate at the end of 2026

The field is heavily concentrated on the 3.5% or more bucket at 80%, but the sum of all other candidates exceeds 100% due to overlapping ranges, indicating genuine dispersion of risk. The biggest recent shift is the compression of lower-rate bets after the Bank of Mexico cut (Reuters, May 7) and the UK base rate hold (Money Saving Expert, Jun 18), which together signaled that major central banks are not aggressively easing, reinforcing the high-rate scenario.

3.5% or more80¢

7 outcomes

$447 Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?

The low 6% odds reflect that double-digit US inflation is historically rare and has not occurred since the early 1980s, and while global inflation pressures persist, no recent data point suggests US CPI is nearing that threshold within six months of Powell's departure.

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027? — Before July 2027

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

$165K Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Polymarket

Open

Bank of Israel Decision in September?

No Change69¢

3 outcomes

$10.6K Vol▲ 6pts1mo

Futuur

Open

US Treasury 10-year yield on July 31?

The field is highly concentrated on the high-yield outcomes, with the top three buckets capturing 96% of the probability, but the single biggest recent shift is a sharp intra-week reversal: yields slid on July 24 after oil fell on hopes for new U.S.-Iran peace talks (CNBC, Jul 24), interrupting a multi-day spike that had pushed the 10-year toward 5% (CNBC, Jul 23).

4.55 or more51¢

6 outcomes

$419 Vol▲ 0pts3d

Kalshi

Open

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? — Beth Hammack

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

$5.6K Vol▲ 0pts3d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Nick Fuentes be revealed to be a Fed before 2040?

Yes48¢

No52¢

Yes ≈ 48% chance

Ɱ4K Vol▲ 0pts13y

Polymarket

Open

How many dissent at the July Fed meeting?

027¢

5 outcomes

$48.6K Vol▼ 2pts3d

Futuur

Open

Next target for Brazil's SELIC interest rate (August)

The field is highly concentrated on a 0.25% cut, but the key shift is that the probability of 'maintain' has risen from near zero to 30% since late 2025, driven by the central bank's signals of a 'new stage' of steady rates (Reuters, Sep 23, 2025) and recent analysis emphasizing no recessionary shortcuts (Valor International, Jun 23).

Lower by 0.25%84¢

4 outcomes

$331 Vol▲ 0pts11d

Kalshi

Open

Fed decision in Sep 2026?

Hike 25bps49¢

5 outcomes

$352K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ443 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

2 (50 bps)33¢

6 outcomes

$55.8K Vol▼ 1pts5mo