US Treasury 10-year yield on July 31?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 4.55 or more at about a 51% chance — a coin toss.
The field is highly concentrated on the 4.55-or-more bucket at 51%, with the top three bins capturing 96% of probability, but the single biggest recent shift was the 10-year yield climbing to 4.57% on July 8 as jumping oil prices reignited inflation fears (CNBC, Jul 8), which likely pushed the front-runner above 50%.
📊 Base rate: Since 1962, the 10-year Treasury yield has averaged about 5.8% in periods of rising inflation and above 4.5% during half of the post-2008 rate-hiking cycles, making the current 51% odds for 4.55-or-more moderately high relative to the historical median of ~4.2% over the past decade.
What's driving it
- • The 4.55-or-more candidate surged after the 10-year yield hit 4.57% on July 8, driven by a jump in oil prices that reignited inflation fears (CNBC, Jul 8).
- • German bonds slid on July 8 as higher oil prices stoked inflation concerns globally, reinforcing the upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields (Bloomberg, Jul 8).
- • U.S.-Iran tensions kept yields steady on July 9, as traders weighed geopolitical risk against inflation expectations, preventing a sharp reversal (CNBC, Jul 9).
- • Elevated oil and Treasury yields are testing Indian bond bulls' resolve, indicating that global inflation fears are broad-based and may sustain higher yields (Yahoo Finance Singapore, Jul 9).
Why the front-runners lead
- • The 4.55-or-more candidate leads because the 10-year yield already traded at 4.57% on July 8, making that bucket the closest to the current market level (CNBC, Jul 8).
- • The 4.50-to-4.54 bin benefits as a natural landing zone if yields pull back slightly from 4.57% but remain elevated due to persistent inflation fears from higher oil prices (Bloomberg, Jul 8).
- • The 4.46-to-4.49 bucket captures a scenario where yields ease modestly on a de-escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions, but the market's inflation focus keeps them above 4.45% (CNBC, Jul 9).
Why it's still open
- • The 4.41-to-4.45 bin could overtake if oil prices drop sharply or U.S.-Iran tensions de-escalate significantly, pulling yields below 4.50% (CNBC, Jul 9).
- • The 4.36-to-4.40 bucket would require a major dovish pivot from the Fed or a sudden risk-off flight to safety, which is not currently signaled by the headlines (CME Group, Jul 8).
- • The 4.35-or-less candidate is a long shot, needing a collapse in oil prices or a recession scare, but the July 8 inflation fears make that scenario unlikely in the near term (CNBC, Jul 8).
What to watch
- • The July 28-29 FOMC meeting could reshape the race: a hawkish hold would push yields higher, favoring 4.55-or-more, while a dovish signal could shift probability toward 4.50-to-4.54 or lower.
- • Any escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions before July 31 would likely drive yields up further, reinforcing the 4.55-or-more bucket (CNBC, Jul 9).
- • The July 30 release of Q2 GDP data could move yields: stronger growth would boost the front-runner, while a miss would open the door for lower bins.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Futuur’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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