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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 9 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2505 Tech Company Valuations 938 Big tech & chips 638 Space 497 Science 296 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

852 markets · page 9 of 36

Kalshi

Open

next Claude Opus debut score? — Above 1500

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

$632 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…7891011…36Next ›

When will the next person celebrate 120s birthday?

In 2050 or earlier86¢

13 outcomes

Ɱ5.2K Vol▲ 0pts9y

Kalshi

Open

Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Portland, OR before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

$4.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

Ɱ939 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $7.26 on Jul 31? — Above $7.26

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$571 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Above 14000 Cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 — Above 14k

Yes77¢

No23¢

Yes ≈ 77% chance

$2.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI play a substential role in the discovery of the first room T+P superconductor ?

Yes63¢

No37¢

Yes ≈ 63% chance

Ɱ471 Vol▲ 0pts13y

Kalshi

Open

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Dec 1, 2026? — Before December

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$51.3K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Manifold· Play

Open

AI: Major scientific discovery by 2030

Yes86¢

No14¢

Yes ≈ 86% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.43 on Jul 31? — Above $0.43

Yes88¢

No12¢

Yes ≈ 88% chance

$2.2K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? — 5000+

Yes89¢

No11¢

Yes ≈ 89% chance

$6.3K Vol5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a unified theory of Quantum Gravity usurp the Standard Model before 2045?

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ188 Vol▲ 0pts18y

Kalshi

Open

Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030? — Before 2030

Yes54¢

No46¢

Yes ≈ 54% chance

$134K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will there be at least 10000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? — 10000+

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$5.2K Vol▼ 14pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

What will be true about Apple's smart ring?

It won't be available for purchase in 2024 100¢

24 outcomes

Ɱ7.6K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Best AI in Jul 2026?

Despite a 98% leader, the field is effectively a one-horse race with no recent headlines driving any movement—the six trailing candidates have been static at 1% each, indicating no competitive shift.

Claude98¢

7 outcomes

$440K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?

Yes17¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Building AI Research Fleets" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ164 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Kalshi

Open

next Claude Opus debut score? — Above 1470

Yes88¢

No12¢

Yes ≈ 88% chance

$500 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?

Yes19¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

▼ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Which of the Millenium Prize problems will be solved next?

Navier-Stokes48¢

7 outcomes

Ɱ6.2K Vol▲ 0pts14y

Kalshi

Open

next Claude Opus debut score? — Above 1490

Yes51¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

$305 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

2y

Kalshi

Open

next Claude Opus debut score? — Above 1510

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$400 Vol▲ 3pts5mo