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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 9 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 2403 Tech Company Valuations 893 Big tech & chips 615 Space 462 Science 270 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,634 markets · page 9 of 110

Kalshi

Open

Will an AI generated song be on the Billboard Hot 100? — Before 2027

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

$36K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…7891011…110Next ›

Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$3.3K Vol▼ 5pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it actually create successors?

Yes64¢

No36¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

Ɱ20 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public? — Paramount+

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31? — #10

Yes97¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 97% chance

$15.2K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

State of AI gets ≥4 of 10 predictions right?

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ42.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$90.5K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? — Glasses

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$15.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ160 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? — 50%+

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

$658 Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$160K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI pay damages exceeding $1 million in a tort liability case by 2028?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ177 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Yes17¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$22.9K Vol▲ 4pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public? — Netflix

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$35.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?

The market's 60% Yes reflects a prevailing belief that AI researchers face a distinct psychological risk, but with no recent news about Ben Yan, the odds are driven by general assumptions rather than specific evidence.

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ118 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

$1.5K Vol▲ 17pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems? — Before October

Yes52¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

$19K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026

Yes35¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? — 70%+

Yes9¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$971 Vol▲ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? — At least 60%

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

$1.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

At the beginning of 2035, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Yes74¢

No27¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ162 Vol▲ 0pts8y

Polymarket

Open

Moonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?

Yes93¢

No7¢

Yes ≈ 93% chance

$16.4K Vol▼ 0pts1d

Kalshi

Open

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Aug 1, 2026? — Before Aug 1, 2026

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$34.6K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be an AI-powered trader on Manifold in the top 20 profit leaderboard by end of 2026?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ5.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo