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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 7 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2403 Tech Company Valuations 893 Big tech & chips 615 Space 462 Science 270 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,634 markets · page 7 of 110

Polymarket

Open

Which company has the best AI Agent end of July?

Anthropic96¢

29 outcomes

$66.1K Vol▼ 2pts5d

Kalshi

Open

What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? — Computer

‹ Prev1…56789…110Next ›

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$2.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the EU publish final AI Act Article 73 incident guidance by Aug 2, 2026?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ101 Vol▲ 0pts7d

Polymarket

Open

Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

Anthropic97¢

26 outcomes

$42K Vol▲ 1pts4d

Kalshi

Open

Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026? — Before Aug 16, 2026

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

$5.3K Vol▼ 1pts20d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ3.5K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Polymarket

Open

Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Yes9¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$8.3K Vol▼ 2pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

When will Tesla release Model Y to the public? — Before 2027

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$25.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Yes85¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?

Anthropic63¢

34 outcomes

$9.2K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 — At least 1550 score

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

$41.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a criminal investigation into OpenAI over the Hugging Face breach be publicly confirmed before 2028?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ541 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$22.4K Vol▼ 0pts11d

Kalshi

Open

Will any of the major AI companies pause research before 2027? — Before 2027

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$55.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Before November 202684¢

15 outcomes

Ɱ13.6K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31? — ↑ 1530

Yes34¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

$1.2K Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027 — At least 1600 score

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$17.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an LLM find a counterexample to the Erdős conjecture on APs by July 2027?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ331 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Polymarket

Open

Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of August?

Moonshot72¢

30 outcomes

$11.1K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Nov 1, 2026? — Before Nov 1, 2026

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

$31.2K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Best METR 50% Time Horizon in 2026

>06h100¢

28 outcomes

Ɱ20K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — 60%+

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$3.2K Vol▼ 4pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will OpenAI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

$106K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$87K Vol▼ 1pts5d