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Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 6 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 2403 Tech Company Valuations 893 Big tech & chips 615 Space 462 Science 270 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,634 markets · page 6 of 110

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? — 45%+

Yes66¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 66% chance

$4.2K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…45678…110Next ›

By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ56.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? — At least 70%

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

$1.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Waymo launch in Portland, OR by December 31 2026?

Yes14¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

$2.2K Vol▼ 18pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]

The field is wide open with 39 options and the top three barely above 5%, but generating labeled diagrams is at 100% because it is the most concrete and verifiable candidate, while the next tier clusters around 75-88%, reflecting uncertainty about subjective criteria like natural conversations and taxes.

Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)100¢

39 outcomes

Ɱ72.9K Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Kalshi

Open

Top Math AI this month

Claude93¢

7 outcomes

$91.5K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — 65%+

Yes14¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

$1.9K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ601 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Claude15¢

8 outcomes

$103K Vol▼ 5pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Claude go down on __ days in July?

9-1167¢

5 outcomes

$62.3K Vol▼ 0pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public? — Amazon

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$21.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ328 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? — 1480+

Yes72¢

No29¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

$10.3K Vol▼ 10pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

$36.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ276 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — 60%+

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

$2.8K Vol▲ 25pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

New York Times wins

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

$59K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Arena?

The market heavily favors No at 75%, reflecting a consensus that European AI models are unlikely to surpass the current top performers on LLM Agent Arena by year-end, but the provided headlines are entirely unrelated to AI or model rankings, so the odds are driven by general sentiment rather than recent events.

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ107 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Which company has second best AI model end of July?

Anthropic98¢

26 outcomes

$78.8K Vol▼ 0pts4d

Kalshi

Open

Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public? — Apple

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$4.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

The market is pricing a slight edge for a machine passing a specific, high-bar version of the Turing test by 2029, but the near-coin-flip odds reflect deep uncertainty about whether LLM advances will translate into the sustained, adversarial conversation required by the Longbets format, not just raw capability gains.

Yes54¢

No46¢

Yes ≈ 54% chance

Ɱ744K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? — 45%+

Yes75¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

$2K Vol▲ 25pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? — Necklace

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$6.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will GPT-6 be released before January 1, 2027?

Yes85¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▼ 3pts5mo