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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 53 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2394 Tech Company Valuations 891 Big tech & chips 610 Space 460 Science 269 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,319 markets · page 53 of 55

Manifold· Play

Open

What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?

≥3x24¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ46.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will at least one Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2026 launch window?

‹ Prev1…5152535455Next ›

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ18.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest by the end of 2026?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ3.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will OpenAI stick to its commitment to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military using its AI by EOY 2026?

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will I be able to buy an Apple computer that is primarily RISC-V based in 2026?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ292 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will "The case for satiating cheaply-satisfied AI p..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ7 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit?

By end of December 202887¢

11 outcomes

Ɱ15.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will a primarily AI-generated work be nominated for a major entertainment award (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony) in 2026?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ208 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will OpenAI release a competitor to GitHub in 2026?

Yes17¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ663 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ18.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ2.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will food be grown on the moon before a human lands on mars

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

Ɱ200 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Google release a Pixel phone that uses a solid-state battery by the end of 2026?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ830 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will there be a trend of companies removing "AI-assisted" features from their products before the end of 2026?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ294 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ5.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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another @subquadratic twitter announcement about SubQ model family, in 2026?

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Ɱ981 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2026

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ385 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Tesla (TSLA) market cap reach US$8.6-trillion before EOY 2035?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ3.5K Vol▲ 0pts9y

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Will Elon Musk ever walk on Mars?

Despite Elon Musk's immense wealth and SpaceX's Starship, the 12% odds reflect a market that sees his Mars walk as a distant, unlikely dream given his age, technical hurdles, and growing personal controversies that may distract from the mission.

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ55.2K Vol▲ 0pts—

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In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ9.5K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Anthropic Removes Claude Code From Every Plan Except Max in 2026

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ542 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025, 2026 or 2027?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ666 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will the SotA open-source AI model in July 2026 use Test-Time Training?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts5d

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Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ168 Vol▲ 0pts5mo