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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 51 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2449 Tech Company Valuations 913 Big tech & chips 628 Space 476 Science 284 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,340 markets · page 51 of 56

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI double the human lifespan within 10 years? (Before february 2035)

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ3.2K Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…4950515253…56Next ›

Will a nuclear detonation happen in space by the end of 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ7.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI-powered tool produce a convincing video of a gay orgy (#LemonParty) of the entire Paypal Mafia by 2026?

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ387 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Tesla overtake NVIDIA in market cap before 2030?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ13.3K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Any SOTA AI model uses human-understandable thinking medium at the end of 2028?

Yes71¢

No29¢

Yes ≈ 71% chance

Ɱ4.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

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Will AI be able to write a passable Manifold weekly newsletter by EOY 2026?

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

Ɱ3.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of Tesla before the end of 2028?

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ333 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?

Yes49¢

No51¢

Yes ≈ 49% chance

Ɱ3.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Apple announce a foldable phone that is not branded as an iPhone by the end of 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ9.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Despite a flurry of headlines using 'bubble pop' language, the market overwhelmingly dismisses a 2026 pop because most of those headlines are either unrelated to AI or come from low-credibility sources, while the one credible financial analysis argues the pullback is neither a bubble pop nor a dip worth buying.

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ135K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will apple sell a computer with cell phone connectivity by the end of 2026?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ397 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will a major social media platform allow users to hide AI-generated content in 2026?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ230 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will a human mission successfully land on Mars before the end of 2035?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ7.4K Vol▲ 0pts9y

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Open

Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?

N = 10091¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ41.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will the best LLM in 2026 have <500 billion parameters?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will a Korean win a Nobel prize in one of the science categories in 2025, 2026, or 2027?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ20 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will Anysphere/Cursor make a play into the repository hosting space in 2026?

The market sees Cursor's entry into repository hosting as highly unlikely because its core product is an AI coding assistant, not infrastructure, and recent headlines highlight its reliance on third-party models and a missed acquisition by OpenAI, suggesting strategic focus elsewhere.

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ824 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?

The field is moderately concentrated (top three sum 54%) but with 10 candidates above 5%, indicating a competitive race where recent high-profile hires like John Jumper (Startup Fortune, Jun 19) have likely boosted confidence in Anthropic's ability to attract top talent, making the front-runners' odds more credible yet still open to surprises.

Alec Radford20¢

12 outcomes

Ɱ38.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ331 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will openai or anthropic have a major LAN party (civ, factorio, EU4, sins of a solar empire) by EOY 2026

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ83 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will China's Darwin neuromorphic chip create an LLM in 2026?

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ75 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

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Will a dog walk on the moon before a human walks on Mars?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ538 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

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What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

The field is overwhelmingly concentrated on the ≥90% outcome, driven by three consecutive breakthroughs from DeepMind, OpenAI, and Anthropic since April 2026, but the 93% probability leaves little room for the possibility that the benchmark's difficulty proves insurmountable within the year.

≥90%93¢

8 outcomes

Ɱ117K Vol▲ 0pts5mo