Tech prediction markets
AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
698 markets · page 5 of 30
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?
Despite a sharp 9-point rally over the past week, the market still assigns only a 22% chance of a consumer release by year-end, reflecting skepticism that Tesla can move from prototype to public purchase inside five months given Musk's own calls for patience and a 2027 scale target.
Yes ≈ 16% chance