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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 4 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2377 Tech Company Valuations 888 Big tech & chips 605 Space 454 Science 269 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,316 markets · page 4 of 55

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — 65%+

Yes22¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$2.1K Vol▲ 8pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev123456…55Next ›

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

$57.1K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Montgomery Blair Science Bowl team receive hoodies for the 2026-2027 year?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ152 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? — 45%+

Yes66¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 66% chance

$4.2K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2026? — Before September

The market is heavily betting against a 2026 confirmation, but the real story is that a formal protocol for disclosure exists (USA Today, Jun 16) and a celebrity endorsement of UFOs (Entertainment Weekly, Jun 10) has not shifted institutional silence, leaving the 1% odds reflecting extreme skepticism rather than any new evidence.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$2M Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an "export-control chip security" bill like the Chip Security Act become law in 2026?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ274 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Waymo launch in Portland, OR by December 31 2026?

Yes14¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

$2.2K Vol▼ 18pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? — Above 16

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$55.9K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Manifold· Play

Open

In Fall 2026, will US computer science departments find their enrollment halved compared to previous years?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ5K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — 65%+

The market heavily discounts OpenAI hitting 65% on Humanity's Last Exam in 2026, despite a string of recent AI breakthroughs in math and coding, because the exam is designed to be extremely difficult and no model has yet come close to that threshold.

Yes14¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

$1.9K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?

551¢

10 outcomes

$25.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Arena?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ107 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Claude go down on __ days in July?

9-1167¢

5 outcomes

$62.3K Vol▼ 0pts5d

Kalshi

Open

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 1, 2026

Anthropic's IPO odds have risen sharply on a string of concrete milestones—settling a major legal hurdle, hiring a Wall Street storyteller, and bankers actively lining up investor meetings—yet the market still prices a 78% chance of no IPO by October 1, suggesting skepticism that the timeline is too tight for a company that has not yet filed publicly.

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

$125K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the EU publish final AI Act Article 73 incident guidance by Aug 2, 2026?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ101 Vol▲ 0pts7d

Polymarket

Open

#1 Searched Passings on Google 2026?

Person 150¢

70 outcomes

$27.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Jan 1, 2027?

The market heavily discounts a US Ebola case despite the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which could disrupt public health surveillance and travel screening, but no recent headlines directly address Ebola risk.

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$66.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Google still be a big tech giant by the end of 2030?

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

Ɱ2.9K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Polymarket

Open

2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

1st hottest93¢

4 outcomes

$113K Vol▼ 2pts4d

Kalshi

Open

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? — Oklo

Oklo is trailing behind other advanced nuclear projects in the criticality race, with only ten days left and no public confirmation of its schedule, making a Yes resolution highly unlikely at current odds.

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$44.1K Vol▼ 3pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ3.5K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — 60%+

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

$2.7K Vol▲ 26pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 13

Despite a lack of recent headlines directly tracking July launch counts, the market is pricing near-certainty that U.S. commercial operators will exceed 13 launches, likely reflecting an already achieved or well-advanced cadence as the month winds down.

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

$3.3K Vol▲ 1pts12d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo