AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
698 markets · page 4 of 30
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 94% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Yes ≈ 36% chance
Yes ≈ 94% chance
Despite recent AI-assisted progress in identifying glitches in fluid equations, the market heavily doubts that the Navier-Stokes problem will be solved by end of 2027 with explicit Google/Alphabet involvement, reflecting the problem's extreme difficulty and the specificity of the condition.
Yes ≈ 9% chance
The market is betting heavily against any AI model reaching a 1550 Chatbot Arena score by year-end 2026, reflecting that even the latest frontier models (Claude 4.6, Gemini 3) have not publicly approached that ceiling, and skepticism about benchmark inflation is growing (KuCoin, Jun 18).
Yes ≈ 26% chance
12 outcomes
Yes ≈ 41% chance
Yes ≈ 59% chance
12 outcomes
Yes ≈ 30% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 60% chance
Yes ≈ 63% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 24% chance
32 outcomes
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Despite 89% odds, the real story is a tug-of-war between relentless rumor momentum and concrete production delays, with Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 8 launch amplifying both anticipation and skepticism about Apple's foldable timeline.
Yes ≈ 89% chance