AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
2,608 markets · page 4 of 109
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Yes ≈ 61% chance
Yes ≈ 38% chance
The market heavily doubts OpenAI will announce AGI by 2027, despite recent product launches, because the dissolution of the Microsoft AGI agreement and rising competition have removed the clearest path and incentive for such a claim.
Yes ≈ 23% chance
32 outcomes
Yes ≈ 33% chance
The high 74% odds reflect confidence in Google's iterative model improvements and strategic partnerships, but the absence of any official announcement or benchmark for Gemini 3.5 Pro leaves a significant gap before the Jan 2027 deadline.
Yes ≈ 70% chance
30 outcomes
Yes ≈ 44% chance
The market is skeptical (23% Yes) despite a recent 7-day uptick, largely because Google has been iterating on lower-tier Flash models (Gemini 3 Flash / 3.2 Flash surfaced in May 2026) without releasing a new Pro variant to the Arena leaderboard, making a sudden debut at 1500+ unlikely without a major performance breakthrough.
Yes ≈ 37% chance
The field is unusually fragmented for a long-range market, with no single candidate above 15% and the top three summing only 41%, reflecting deep uncertainty about which AI or space bet will dominate by 2030. The biggest recent shift is the rise of Anthropic to 13%, likely tied to the broader AI arms race narrative, though no specific headline directly explains its move.
27 outcomes
Yes ≈ 40% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 66% chance
Despite a flurry of headlines reporting a delay of months due to missed coding targets, the market still prices a Yes resolution at 88%, suggesting traders either expect a quick fix or interpret 'Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater' loosely enough to include a renamed or scaled-back launch before the deadline.
Yes ≈ 84% chance
Yes ≈ 79% chance
Yes ≈ 65% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 37% chance
32 outcomes
Yes ≈ 34% chance