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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 3 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2354 Tech Company Valuations 875 Big tech & chips 602 Space 445 Science 264 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,303 markets · page 3 of 55

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? — 55%+

Yes85¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

$3.3K Vol▲ 13pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

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What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030

The field is unusually fragmented for a long-range market, with no single candidate above 15% and the top three summing only 41%, reflecting deep uncertainty about which AI or space bet will dominate by 2030. The biggest recent shift is the rise of Anthropic to 13%, likely tied to the broader AI arms race narrative, though no specific headline directly explains its move.

Nvidia15¢

27 outcomes

Ɱ116K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Aug 1, 2026

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$212K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Anthropic63¢

26 outcomes

$395K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

The market is betting against a perfect score (67% No) despite recent open-source models reaching gold-medal level, because a perfect score requires solving all six problems—a feat no AI has ever achieved and even top human contestants rarely accomplish.

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ71.2K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026? — Above 14

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$9.2K Vol▲ 0pts12d

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? — 1480+

Yes72¢

No29¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

$10.3K Vol▼ 16pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030?

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

Ɱ508 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? — Above 18

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$33.2K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Polymarket

Open

#1 Searched Actor on Google 2026?

Person 150¢

78 outcomes

$8.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ3.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026? — Above 4000

Yes39¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

$244K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?

Person 150¢

93 outcomes

$73K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ10.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Anthropic58¢

9 outcomes

$954K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?

Yes85¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

$11.2K Vol▲ 1pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Jul 31, 2026? — Before Jul 31, 2026

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$26K Vol▲ 0pts4d

Manifold· Play

Open

What will happen in 2026 related to AI?

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.100¢

95 outcomes

Ɱ66.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? — 1500+

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

$9.5K Vol▲ 6pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 55% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? — At least 55%

Yes87¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

$1.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

GPT-6 released in 2026?

Yes86¢

No14¢

Yes ≈ 86% chance

Ɱ12K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026? — 1520+

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$8.9K Vol▲ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Republic of the Congo

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$80.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Montgomery Blair Science Bowl team receive hoodies for the 2026-2027 year?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ152 Vol▲ 0pts11mo