AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
2,578 markets · page 3 of 108
7 outcomes
The field is unusually fragmented, with 'Other' leading at 32% reflecting a lack of a single dominant figure, but Zohran Mamdani's sudden rise in the early public poll (Hindustan Times, Jul 25) shows a new entrant gaining momentum, possibly fracturing the Trump/Vance and Pope votes.
49 outcomes
The surge to 71% reflects market belief that OpenAI's GPT-5.6 (released Jul 9) or another frontier model will hit the 1575 Math Arena threshold by year-end, but the 30-point jump in 24 hours suggests a concentrated bet on a single upcoming release rather than a diversified view of the field.
Yes ≈ 71% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
The high 56% Yes odds for AI resolving P vs NP by 2050 reflect a general AI optimism narrative, not any concrete technical breakthrough, as all recent headlines are about unrelated resolutions (green steel, tax disputes, FCPA, etc.).
Yes ≈ 65% chance
Yes ≈ 87% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
The market is pricing a near-certain 'No' because Google has not released a Gemini Pro model since the 3.5 Pro was announced at I/O and then went missing for 67 days, while the company has instead launched a Flash variant and begun training Gemini 4 with no 2026 release date.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
The market is pricing an 84% chance of a new Gemini Pro model by August 31, 2026, driven by a flurry of recent model releases, but the key tension is that none of those releases have been a 'Pro' flagship—they've all been cheaper, lightweight variants, suggesting Google may be prioritizing cost-efficiency over a major Pro launch within the window.
Yes ≈ 85% chance
OpenAI's rapid model releases and public AGI principles suggest progress, but the market heavily discounts a formal AGI announcement by year-end, likely because recent actions (e.g., the death of the Microsoft agreement) indicate a cautious, incremental approach rather than a definitive breakthrough.
Yes ≈ 7% chance
The market is pricing a 45% chance that Anthropic surpasses Apple in valuation by 2030, driven by recent technical breakthroughs and legal disputes, but this is a high-risk bet given Apple's massive market cap and legal offensive.
Yes ≈ 45% chance
Yes ≈ 37% chance
Yes ≈ 94% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 36% chance
Yes ≈ 38% chance
Yes ≈ 23% chance
Yes ≈ 52% chance