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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 28 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2494 Tech Company Valuations 931 Big tech & chips 636 Space 496 Science 292 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

726 markets · page 28 of 31

Manifold· Play

Open

Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.)

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ46 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1…262728293031Next ›

Open

When will Rubin come out?

Before December 202686¢

12 outcomes

Ɱ9.9K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ738 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Tesla's fleet sales constitute over 30% of total vehicle sales by December 31, 2027

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ682 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Apple have on-device TTS that is indistinguishable from a human narrator before 2027?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Apple source memory chips from a Chinese supplier before 2028?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ164 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ594 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Tesla P/E ratio above 259 at December 31, 2026

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

Ɱ173 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ798 Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Tesla merge with xAI by the end of 2027?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ4.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Tesla stop making cars before 2035

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ226 Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

Open

Fully automated Tesla charger for model Y in CA by mid 2027

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ221 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Anthropic signs compute deal with Meta by end of 2027?

Yes85¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Tesla sells humanoid robots to the public in 2027

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ929 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Google buys Nintendo in 2030?

The market sees Google buying Nintendo by 2030 as extremely unlikely, with the recent headlines focusing on Nintendo's strong standalone hardware sales and ecosystem growth rather than any acquisition signals.

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ808 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ213 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will Microsoft Copilot inject ads into unrelated commits again?

Yes71¢

No29¢

Yes ≈ 71% chance

Ɱ140 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will "Prompt injection in Google Translate reveals ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ288 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AR/VR product from Apple overtake iPhones 10 years after Vision Pro's launch?

Despite Vision Pro's launch, the market sees virtually no chance that any Apple AR/VR product will outsell iPhones within 10 years, reflecting iPhone's entrenched ecosystem and AR/VR's niche status.

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ223 Vol▲ 0pts7y

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Open

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

In exactly two years, will two shares of Applied Micro Devices (AMD) be worth more than one share of Microsoft (MSFT)?

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

Ɱ321 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

iPhone (0%) vs Android (100%) - who uses what? MegaMarket.

Ernie100¢

64 outcomes

Ɱ10.6K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

What will be true of the next Tesla roadster?

It will have a mode faster than plaid85¢

17 outcomes

Ɱ4.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo