AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
1,597 markets · page 21 of 67
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Despite no human breakthrough, 89% Yes reflects hype around a jellyfish's immortal life cycle and a tech mogul's 2039 promise, not proven science.
Yes ≈ 89% chance
Yes ≈ 18% chance
11 outcomes
The market is not reacting to any recent Ebola-specific news—the 92% No reflects the long-standing historical rarity of US Ebola cases, not a shift in risk or policy.
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 57% chance
Yes ≈ 13% chance
2 outcomes
The market's extreme No odds reflect the absence of any news about Fable 5 or a plausible regulatory mechanism, making a sudden block before July 31 appear highly improbable.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 59% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 21% chance
The market's low confidence (34%) in a Grok model hitting 50%+ on Humanity's Last Exam reflects the extreme difficulty of this benchmark, where even frontier models currently score below 10%, and no clear recent progress has been visible to shift expectations up.
Yes ≈ 33% chance
Yes ≈ 18% chance
The market is betting heavily against any AI model reaching a 1550 Chatbot Arena score by year-end 2026, reflecting that even the latest frontier models (Claude 4.6, Gemini 3) have not publicly approached that ceiling, and skepticism about benchmark inflation is growing (KuCoin, Jun 18).
Yes ≈ 26% chance
Yes ≈ 36% chance
Yes ≈ 76% chance
Despite SpaceX's recent successful Starship satellite deployment, the market heavily discounts a 2026 orbital refueling because the company has yet to demonstrate any aspect of the critical propellant transfer technology, and the year is already half over.
Yes ≈ 10% chance
The low 17% odds for 5,000+ measles cases reflect a counterintuitive global outbreak context: as outbreaks rage internationally and slip across borders, the U.S. has so far contained them to isolated clusters, making the 5,000-case threshold a steep hurdle after decades of near-elimination.
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 92% chance