AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
1,304 markets · page 2 of 55
Yes ≈ 17% chance
The market is pricing an 84% chance of a new Gemini Pro model by August 31, 2026, driven by a flurry of recent model releases, but the key tension is that none of those releases have been a 'Pro' flagship—they've all been cheaper, lightweight variants, suggesting Google may be prioritizing cost-efficiency over a major Pro launch within the window.
Yes ≈ 85% chance
With five months left in 2026, the market assigns only a 22% chance to an AI-created song cracking the Billboard Hot 100 top 20, a bet that the continued chart dominance of human artists—highlighted by recent AC/DC and Dionne Warwick headlines—will persist.
Yes ≈ 22% chance
The market's 3% chance reflects a realistic baseline: U.S. commercial operators rarely exceed 10 launches per month, and none of the provided headlines address launch cadence, so the odds are driven by a low historical prior rather than any new information.
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Yes ≈ 94% chance
The field is unusually fragmented, with 'Other' leading at 32% reflecting a lack of a single dominant figure, but Zohran Mamdani's sudden rise in the early public poll (Hindustan Times, Jul 25) shows a new entrant gaining momentum, possibly fracturing the Trump/Vance and Pope votes.
49 outcomes
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Yes ≈ 36% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 52% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 28% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 38% chance
Despite historical September launches, the market heavily doubts an iPhone 18 release before October 2026, as Apple appears to be prioritizing foldable models and a second-generation iPhone Air for 2027 over a traditional annual upgrade.
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 51% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance