Tech prediction markets
AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
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819 markets · page 2 of 35
Polymarket
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New pandemic in 2026?
The market heavily discounts a WHO pandemic declaration in 2026 because the threshold is high, reserved for truly global spread of a novel pathogen, and recent outbreaks like measles and Ebola remain regional. The real story is the low probability assigned to any single year given the historical rarity of such declarations.
Yes7¢
No94¢
Yes ≈ 7% chance
$915K Vol5mo