AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
2,578 markets · page 2 of 108
Despite rapid advances in image and language models, the market sees only a 29% chance of AI generating a full high-quality movie by early 2028, reflecting the lack of any concrete progress toward the complex, multi-modal challenge of coherent movie generation.
Yes ≈ 29% chance
5 outcomes
Yes ≈ 85% chance
Yes ≈ 78% chance
4 outcomes
Yes ≈ 91% chance
32 outcomes
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 63% chance
The market is heavily bearish (31% Yes) because Google's announced Gemini 3.5 Pro remains unreleased 67 days after I/O, and the company just launched a Flash model instead, while Gemini 4 training is underway with no 2026 release date, making a Pro launch by August 7 extremely unlikely.
Yes ≈ 28% chance
Yes ≈ 31% chance
32 outcomes
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Anthropic has already posted a profitable quarter (Q2 2026) exceeding $1B, making full-year profitability highly likely unless subsequent quarters see massive reversals, but the 87% odds reflect a near-consensus that the trend will continue.
Yes ≈ 89% chance
Despite the market's near-even odds and sharp 24-hour swing, none of the provided recent headlines (all sports) relate to AI model performance, suggesting the movement is driven by external factors not captured in the given news.
Yes ≈ 49% chance
9 outcomes
With five months left in 2026, the market assigns only a 22% chance to an AI-created song cracking the Billboard Hot 100 top 20, a bet that the continued chart dominance of human artists—highlighted by recent AC/DC and Dionne Warwick headlines—will persist.
Yes ≈ 22% chance