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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 11 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2403 Tech Company Valuations 893 Big tech & chips 615 Space 462 Science 270 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,634 markets · page 11 of 110

Manifold· Play

Open

Will GPT-5 have over 1 trillion parameters?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ5.6K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev1…910111213…110Next ›

Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? — above 1505

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$1.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? — 70%+

Yes19¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$562 Vol▲ 2pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Is GPT-4.5 the base model for o3?

Yes6¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ7.7K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Kalshi

Open

Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? — above 1510

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$1.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026? — Necklace

Yes16¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$25.4K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? — above 1515

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$982 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

will a paper released before 2030 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Yes78¢

No22¢

Yes ≈ 78% chance

Ɱ2.8K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?

Yes59¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

$3.2K Vol▲ 5pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? — above 1520

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

By 2027, will an AI-driven robot (maybe humanoid) conduct a full symphony orchestra in a live public performance?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ189 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?

Yes21¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

$23.3K Vol25d

Kalshi

Open

next Claude Opus debut score? — Above 1460

Yes97¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 97% chance

▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Tesla introduces model which can be configured to have >=500 mile range per charge before 2029

Yes67¢

No33¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

Ɱ85 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? — 55%+

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

$492 Vol▲ 6pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

next Claude Opus debut score? — Above 1465

Yes96¢

No5¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a premier league game broadcasted with AI commentators by 2027?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? — 40%+

Yes88¢

No12¢

Yes ≈ 88% chance

$972 Vol▲ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

next Claude Opus debut score? — Above 1475

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2028?

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

Ɱ1K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of August?

Anthropic76¢

34 outcomes

$21K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

next Claude Opus debut score? — Above 1480

Yes67¢

No33¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

$98 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Yes21¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ21.7K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of July?

OpenAI90¢

27 outcomes

$8.1K Vol▲ 0pts5d