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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 107 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2377 Tech Company Valuations 888 Big tech & chips 605 Space 454 Science 269 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,608 markets · page 107 of 109

Manifold· Play

Open

Can AI grow corn?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ322 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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‹ Prev1…105106107108109Next ›

Will ai.com change hands by EOY?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ214 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Chat GPT 7 release before the end of 2027?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

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Will OpenAI go bankrupt following a major AI market crash before 2030?

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ675 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Thoughts on the Pause AI protest" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ750 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

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Will "What SB 53, California’s new AI law, does" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes10¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ504 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

30-40%26¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ33.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will any AI be legally recognized by any country's government as being a "person" deserving of some rights before 2029?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ3.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2800?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ972 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Yes70¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ3.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ281 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will Sam Altman reference OpenAI achieving AGI in five tweets prior to the official announcement?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ180 Vol▲ 0pts—

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[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ215 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will an LLM defeat Magnus Carlsen before 2029?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ294 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will Obama be formally associated with Anthropic before 2030?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ2.1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will a vessel be launched to test MOND vs Lambda-CDM model before 2035?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ89 Vol▲ 0pts8y

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Will someone train an LLM using a dataset that has had all references to consciousness removed?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ315 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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AI: Valuation above $1T by 2035

Yes84¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 84% chance

Ɱ330 Vol▲ 0pts8y

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If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Yes53¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will AI extend English before 2032?

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ892 Vol▲ 0pts5y

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Will OpenAI do large layoffs this year?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ349 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will AI solve a famous unsolved crime before April of 2028?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ321 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will OpenAI name another model Codex by the end of this year?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ4.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo