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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 106 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2477 Tech Company Valuations 925 Big tech & chips 632 Space 489 Science 291 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,708 markets · page 106 of 113

Manifold· Play

Open

Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031?

Yes51¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts5y

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…104105106107108…113Next ›

Will selling your own chat history for AI training be possible before 2030?

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

Ɱ148 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ983 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

By the end of 2026, will AI have empowered me to build a bot that can reach the top 500 in the current gen of OU?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ51 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Medical researchers publish papers crediting OpenAI tools with major progress in any of 30 top diseases by mid 2027

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ344 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will growth in the maximum MW used to train AIs, slow down by more than x2 after GPT-6-like?

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ50 Vol▲ 0pts13y

Manifold· Play

Open

Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "My model of what is going on with LLMs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ68 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If AI destroys the world by 2035, will it be largely due to a company/lab based in the San Francisco Bay Area?

Yes67¢

No33¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

Ɱ54 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a large language model (or AI) successfully convince someone to take amphetamine (off-label, not for ADHD) by 2035?

Yes61¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

Ɱ30 Vol▲ 0pts10y

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Will AI wipe out Raccoons before the year 2030?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ3K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will an AI be elected to public office in the USA by 2034? (850M subsidy)

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ2.9K Vol▲ 0pts7y

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Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ282 Vol▲ 0pts—

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AI interpretability finds "heel turn" or "waluigi" circuits by 2028-03-11?

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

Ɱ653 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will a Latin American country pass legislation attempting to regulate AI before end of 2025?

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ167 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

When will the average number of submissions to top AI conferences first decline over the previous year?

202518¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ7K Vol▲ 0pts9y

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Will ""The AI Doc" is coming out March 26" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ320 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will more than 100 million people self-describe as believing in some "AI Religion" by 2035?

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

Ɱ207 Vol▲ 0pts9y

Manifold· Play

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Will AI be able to accurately predict natural disasters with a week's notice by 2030?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will Japan prevent AI training on copyrighted data before 2030?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ95 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Yes53¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

Ɱ7.3K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

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Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ3.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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$100B AI training cluster before 2029?

Yes93¢

No7¢

Yes ≈ 93% chance

Ɱ12.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ722 Vol▲ 0pts13y