AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
2,750 markets · page 104 of 115
Yes ≈ 20% chance
Yes ≈ 75% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 69% chance
Yes ≈ 24% chance
10 outcomes
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 36% chance
Yes ≈ 55% chance
Yes ≈ 45% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 70% chance
Yes ≈ 35% chance
Yes ≈ 37% chance
Yes ≈ 54% chance
Yes ≈ 14% chance
The market is pricing in a strong belief that AI will replicate the full scope of 2023 indie games within three years, but the real story is whether 'comparable' includes subjective qualities like artistic coherence and player experience, which remain elusive for AI.
Yes ≈ 75% chance
Yes ≈ 68% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 37% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 38% chance