AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
2,750 markets · page 103 of 115
Yes ≈ 87% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Yes ≈ 82% chance
The market heavily doubts 'Comparative advantage & AI' will crack the LessWrong 2025 Annual Review top fifty, largely because the reference-class of headlines mentioning comparative advantage, AI, and top-fifty lists are unrelated to LessWrong's intellectual culture, dragging the probability down.
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Yes ≈ 92% chance
Yes ≈ 82% chance
The market's 14% odds reflect that the post, arguing for attention to non-LLM AI risks, likely failed to break into the LessWrong 2025 top 50, as the review period ended and community focus has remained on LLM developments.
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Yes ≈ 69% chance
Yes ≈ 59% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 27% chance
Yes ≈ 40% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 71% chance
Yes ≈ 78% chance