AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
2,608 markets · page 10 of 109
Yes ≈ 45% chance
32 outcomes
Yes ≈ 59% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 57% chance
Yes ≈ 38% chance
The market heavily discounts a near-term AI breakthrough to 1700 on the LMSYS leaderboard, likely because no recent headline suggests a capability leap that dramatic, and the provided news flow is entirely non-AI (sports, politics, finance), reinforcing the status quo.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
The 18-point surge in Yes odds reflects market optimism about Moonshot's newly released Kimi K3 model, but the lack of direct HLE results and allegations of distillation from Claude Fable create significant uncertainty about whether it can reach the 50% threshold.
Yes ≈ 30% chance
Yes ≈ 47% chance
The market heavily doubts any AI model will hit the extremely high LMSYS Elo score of 1540 by year-end, reflecting a belief that the benchmark’s top end is far beyond current capabilities even with rapid progress.
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance
30 outcomes
The market is pricing near-zero odds that Hulu releases a fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series by year-end 2026, despite growing evidence of AI-generated short-form content and single scenes, because no major streamer has committed to a full-length scripted series and the deadline is only five months away.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 90% chance
The market sees a very low chance of a new Gemini Pro model release within 10 days, and a sharp 33-point drop in the last day without a clear headline suggests traders are pricing in a silent period or missed cadence.
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 40% chance
Yes ≈ 78% chance