Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
161 markets · page 6 of 7
Yes ≈ 83% chance
Despite recent upward movement, the market sees only a 10% chance of a Russian nuclear test by end of 2026, reflecting that while Russia is escalating nuclear rhetoric and developing new systems (space weapon, Sarmat missile), the political and detection costs of an actual test remain prohibitive.
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Lula's 65% odds reflect a strong incumbency advantage and assertive foreign policy posture, but the New York Post headline suggests domestic and international criticism that could erode support, making the race tighter than the number implies.
Yes ≈ 65% chance
The market sees Putin retaining power through constitutional control and repression, but growing war fatigue and diplomatic openings introduce a risk of destabilization that the odds only partially discount.
Yes ≈ 66% chance
Yes ≈ 21% chance
The market strongly expects Lagarde to leave office exactly when her term ends in October 2027, with no indication of a second term or extension, making the 14% Yes price consistent with historical precedent.
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Yes ≈ 20% chance
The 80% No odds reflect the simple fact that Joe Biden is a decade older than Vladimir Putin, a gap that generally outweighs differences in healthcare access and lifestyle. The market is pricing in a low probability of Biden outliving Putin, consistent with actuarial expectations for a pair of men in their 80s and 70s respectively.
Yes ≈ 20% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Yes ≈ 35% chance
Despite diplomatic overtures from mediators, the US under Trump remains opposed, and Iran's new president has not shifted the fundamental impasse, keeping revival unlikely.
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Despite US pressure and Zelenskyy's confidence he could win, martial law and his demand for a pre-vote ceasefire make a 2026 election announcement extremely unlikely before the deadline.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Despite a Russian summer offensive focused on Donetsk, the market prices a near-certain No (96%) because the resolution requires simultaneous control of all municipalities, a bar Russia has never reached in any oblast, and senior NATO officials doubt even a 2027 timeline.
Yes ≈ 4% chance