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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 5 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

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All US governance 3829 US elections 2702 Foreign politics 410 Political Leader Tenure 340 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 202 Leader Tenure Predictions 115 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 73 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

117 markets · page 5 of 5

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Dwarkesh Patel interview a current or former US President before 2027?

Yes14¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

‹ Prev1…345

Will the United States still be at war with Iran when the next Democratic president is inaugurated?

Yes13¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ125 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

US president makes official announcement confirming UFOs or extraterrestrials before 2033?

Despite the Pentagon's historic release of UFO files in May 2026 and ongoing official hints, the market remains skeptical (No at 62%) because past disclosures have stopped short of a definitive presidential confirmation, and no president has ever made such an announcement.

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts6y

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Will a Democratic President confiscate the coins?

Yes39¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

Ɱ129 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Clarence Thomas leave Supreme Court in 2026?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ309 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Was the first female US President born before 2000?

The market strongly expects the first female US president to be born before 2000, likely because the most prominent female candidates (e.g., Hillary Clinton, born 1947) are already over 50, and a first-term president typically takes office in their 40s–60s, meaning a first female president born after 2000 would be at most 26 in 2026—implausibly young for a major-party nominee.

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will the next non Republican president remove Trump's name from the Kennedy Center in their first year?

The market strongly expects a Democratic president to erase Trump's name from the Kennedy Center early, reflecting a belief that bipartisan anger at Trump's meddling with the institution will make removal a low-cost political gesture.

Yes84¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 84% chance

Ɱ179 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

Ɱ398 Vol▲ 0pts—

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If a Republican president is elected in the 2024 US election, will the federal minimum wage increase above $7.25/hr?

The low 38% odds reflect that even with a Republican president in the White House, the 17-year stagnation of the federal minimum wage and the GOP's traditional opposition make an increase unlikely, with the 2026 midterm elections now the primary battleground for any legislative change.

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ192 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Trump is US President on December 31, 2026?

The market is pricing Trump's continued presidency as nearly certain, but the real story is that this reflects a lack of credible near-term mechanisms for removal rather than broad public confidence, with recent headlines showing active governance alongside persistent political and legal controversies.

Yes93¢

No7¢

Yes ≈ 93% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will a person under the age of 60 be elected US President in 2028?

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will any current or former US President or member of the Cabinet identify as a furry by 2039?

The market sees a near-zero chance of a US President or Cabinet member identifying as a furry, reflecting the complete absence of historical precedent or any credible signals in current political discourse.

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts12y

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Will any former or current US president openly support sedition before January 1st, 2030?

Yes49¢

No51¢

Yes ≈ 49% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will a female be elected US president in 2028?

Despite the historic election of a female president of the Nigerian Bar Association, the US presidency market for a woman in 2028 remains at 15%, reflecting the lack of any direct connection between Nigerian legal politics and the US presidential race, as well as the long-standing historical absence of an elected female US president.

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ249 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will Donald Trump be the last US president?

The 5% probability that Trump is the last US president reflects speculation about systemic collapse or constitutional rupture, not about him losing re-election—but recent headlines show neither an existential crisis nor any clear path to him ending the presidency permanently.

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will there be a US president who identifies as female by end of 2035?

Yes50¢

No50¢

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Ɱ11.7K Vol▲ 0pts9y

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Was the first female US President born before 1990?

The market sees a first female US president born after 1990 as more likely, but the provided headlines about Brigitte Macron's gender controversy are only tangentially related, making the odds hard to tie to concrete US political developments.

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Memorial Circle Triumphal Arch (Arc de Trump) Inaugurated by Trump?

The market sees Trump's proposed D.C. triumphal arch as unlikely to be inaugurated under his name, despite preliminary approval from one agency, due to local opposition and legal hurdles that have stalled previous similar projects.

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ127 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will the next Non Republican president abolish ICE?

Public anger at ICE's aggressiveness is high, but the market doubts a future non-Republican president will abolish the agency because Democrats have consistently pushed for reform, not abolition, and the political and legal barriers to eliminating a federal law enforcement agency are steep.

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ2.5K Vol▲ 0pts12y

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Will Jimmy Carter still hold the record for longest-lived US president at the end of 2075?

Jimmy Carter's record of 100 years is a high bar, and the market strongly believes it will stand through 2075, but the lack of direct news about presidential longevity leaves the odds stable.

Yes78¢

No22¢

Yes ≈ 78% chance

Ɱ192 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Donald Trump stop being US president in 2029?

The market is effectively betting that Donald Trump will still be president for at least part of January 2029, but the 18% 'No' reflects a non-trivial risk of early exit due to scandals or foreign-policy crises before his term ends.

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts3y