Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
6,120 markets · page 5 of 255
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Despite Trump's announced three-day ceasefire in May 2026, the market sees only a 15% chance of a durable ceasefire before the midterms, reflecting skepticism that temporary pauses will translate into a lasting agreement.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Yes ≈ 44% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 43% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
3 outcomes
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Yes ≈ 98% chance
4 outcomes
2 outcomes
Yes ≈ 9% chance
The field is extremely concentrated in deep-red states where Republican incumbents or heirs-apparent face no serious general-election threat, but the recent shift is a slight narrowing in Mississippi and Tennessee as national Democrats signal they will contest only a handful of seats, leaving the rest uncontested.
35 outcomes
2 outcomes
The current odds reflect the market's struggle to weigh credible security threats and speculations about Trump's age and health against the absence of concrete medical evidence, with headlines providing more noise than clarity.
Yes ≈ 22% chance
The market sees near-zero chance of a crypto market structure bill becoming law by September 1, 2026, despite recent bipartisan talks and White House agreement on ethics provisions, because the CLARITY Act's passage odds have hit a historic low and a Senate ethics dispute threatens progress.
Yes ≈ 4% chance
2 outcomes
Yes ≈ 60% chance