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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 4 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3867 US elections 2746 Foreign politics 422 Political Leader Tenure 349 Future US Presidents 225 US Political Timelines 203 Leader Tenure Predictions 117 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 74 Person of the Year Awards 13 Sports & Political Leadership 10

261 markets · page 4 of 11

Manifold· Play

Open

On the day before the 2029 inauguration, who will be the President of the United States?

Donald J. Trump70¢

13 outcomes

Ɱ17.6K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will JD Vance announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027? — Before Oct 1, 2027

‹ Prev123456…11Next ›

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

$1 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Andrew Tate ever become president?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ2.1K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will the President of the United States visit Greenland before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a female president of the United States before China and Taiwan go to war?

Yes31¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ12.7K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will the President of the United States visit Greenland before Jan 1, 2028? — Before Jan 1, 2028

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

$688 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will samo burja advise the new JD Vance administration, either with him as VP or president?

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ133 Vol▲ 0pts6y

Kalshi

Open

Will the President of the United States visit Greenland before Jan 20, 2029? — Before Jan 20, 2029

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

$20 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Pickleball be an official Olympic event before the first female president of the United States ?

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a vice president with the cabinet lead a coup against the president of the United States in the 21st century?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ76 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Kamala Harris be US President (for any length of time) before 2030?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ329 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a third party US president before 2050.

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ1K Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump be ranked as the worst US President by the end of his second term according to CSPAN's Survey?

The market is nearly split on whether Trump will be ranked the worst president by CSPAN, but the real story is that recent polls and media rankings already label him the worst ever, yet CSPAN's academic survey may be more resistant to recency bias and partisan framing.

Yes48¢

No52¢

Yes ≈ 48% chance

Ɱ19K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a sitting US president visit El Salvador through 2029?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ231 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will JD Vance be impeached and removed during Trump's second term?

The 10% odds for JD Vance's impeachment and removal reflect that such an event would require a uniquely hostile chain of events—a House impeachment and a Senate conviction—but the recent headlines are almost entirely about Trump, not Vance, leaving the market anchored by the absence of any direct allegations or legal threats against the Vice President.

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ354 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a Millennial become president of the United States?

J.D. Vance's historic election as first millennial VP and his status as a potential MAGA torchbearer have pushed the odds to 86%, but the long gap until 2028 and the possibility of older successors keep the door open for a No resolution.

Yes86¢

No14¢

Yes ≈ 86% chance

Ɱ295 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a technocrat be elected US president by 2040?

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ54 Vol▲ 0pts13y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will JD Vance become President during Trump’s second term?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ11K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there ever be a Generation X president of the US?

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ248 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts6y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump resign as US President during his second term?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ19.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there ever be a Gen X US President?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ952 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a sitting US President refuse to follow or ignore a Supreme Court ruling by 2032?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ16.9K Vol▲ 0pts6y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will JD Vance become President before January 20, 2029?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y