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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 4 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3867 US elections 2746 Foreign politics 422 Political Leader Tenure 349 Future US Presidents 225 US Political Timelines 203 Leader Tenure Predictions 117 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 74 Person of the Year Awards 13 Sports & Political Leadership 10

709 markets · page 4 of 30

Smarkets

Open

Next General Election - Snap 2026 Election

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

£2.5K Vol▼ 6pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev123456…30Next ›

EU dissolves in ....?

Other53¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ30.5K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Reform UK, ≥10%

Yes92¢

No8¢

Yes ≈ 92% chance

$10.4K Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Futuur

Open

Elected Senators for Minas Gerais in 2026

Marília Campos70¢

6 outcomes

$229 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner

William Azaroff27¢

39 outcomes

$145K Vol▼ 3pts2mo

Smarkets

Open

Nigel Farage Exit Date

202631¢

4 outcomes

£1.8K Vol▼ 1pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

In the next UK general election, Will Reform UK and Restore Britain be top 2 in any seat?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ214 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

New Mexico Senate winner?

Ben Ray Luján94¢

2 outcomes

$22.6K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Renan Santos65¢

32 outcomes

$474K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Futuur

Open

Elected Senators for Alagoas in 2026

Arthur Lira48¢

4 outcomes

$76 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Smarkets

Open

Next General Election - Snap 2027 Election

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

£1.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Reform win less than 50 seats at the next UK General election?

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ41.9K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will the United States acquire any part of Canada before 2029? — Before 2029

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$134K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner

AfD84¢

24 outcomes

$420K Vol▼ 2pts1mo

Futuur

Open

Dias Toffoli out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice by ...?

June 30, 202715¢

2 outcomes

$60 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Smarkets

Open

Clacton By-Election - Nigel Farage To Increase Vote Share

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

£1.2K Vol▲ 0pts18d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?

Farage's resignation as MP (BBC, Jul 7) paradoxically hasn't dented market confidence — the 70% 'Yes' implies traders see the move as a strategic pivot to lead from outside Parliament, not a step back — but the simultaneous collapse in Reform's poll lead (HuffPost UK, Jul 6) and Burnham's stronger PM ratings (Ipsos, Jul 3) suggest the route is narrowing.

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ9.1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Sanae Takaichi

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$43.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?

273¢

4 outcomes

$28.3K Vol▼ 8pts5mo

Futuur

Open

Elected Governor of Alagoas in 2026

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

$21 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Smarkets

Open

Next General Election - Snap Election

Yes51¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

£880 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Trump Lost parliament Support Before 2028

Yes93¢

No7¢

Yes ≈ 93% chance

Ɱ256 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by July 31?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$65.8K Vol▲ 0pts4d

Kalshi

Open

Will anyone win outright in the first round of the 2026 Brazil Presidential election?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$10.4K Vol▲ 0pts1y