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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 3 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3829 US elections 2702 Foreign politics 410 Political Leader Tenure 340 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 202 Leader Tenure Predictions 115 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 73 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

408 markets · page 3 of 17

Kalshi

Open

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027? — Before Apr 1, 2027

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$174 Vol▲ 0pts8mo

Polymarket

Open

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Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$18.3K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Vladimir Putin be alive and out of custody for at least 7 days after he ceases to be the president of Russia?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ281 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will Sara Duterte be out as Vice President of the Philippines before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

$3.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by July 31, 2026?

Yes1¢

No100¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$4.1K Vol4d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?

The 66% probability reflects a belief that Trump's second term will see a third impeachment, driven by Democratic control of the House and ongoing legal pressures, but historical rarity of second-term impeachments and Republican Senate control temper the odds.

Yes66¢

No34¢

Yes ≈ 66% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will any Republican member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment before 2027? — Before 2027

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$73.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by July 31? — July 31, 2026

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$2.8K Vol4d

Manifold· Play

Open

WIll Mykhailo Fedorov become the next President of Ukraine?

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ94 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will any Republican member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment before 2029? — Before Jan 20, 2029

Yes53¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

$1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31?

Yes39¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

$196 Vol▼ 18pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump serve a full term?

The 75% odds of Trump serving a full term reflect a market that sees his grip on the GOP as strong enough to survive record turnover and a key ally's death, but the real story is whether the unprecedented churn in Senate-confirmed officials signals a deeper instability that could trigger a constitutional crisis or resignation.

Yes75¢

No25¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

Ɱ257 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Ending Jun 4, 2029

Yes66¢

No34¢

Yes ≈ 66% chance

$20.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Lai Ching-te impeached by December 31?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$97 Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will JD Vance be President of the USA during the 2028 Olympics

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Will Bernie Sanders run for President of The United States? — Before November 4, 2028

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$20.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?

Yes4¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$82.6K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump’s second presidential term NOT end exactly on January 20, 2029, due to war, emergency, impeachment, or other

The market prices a 25% chance of Trump's second term ending early, well above the ~5% historical base rate, reflecting unique risks from his legal exposure and norm-breaking behavior, but still sees a 75% likelihood of a normal completion.

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ270 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

$426 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by July 31, 2026?

Yes0¢

No100¢

Yes ≈ 0% chance

$5.2K Vol4d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Hillary Clinton ever be elected President?

The market reflects a near-consensus view that Hillary Clinton, now deep into her late 70s and having lost twice, will never become president — a sharp break from the 'inevitable' narrative of 2016. The real story is that her own recent media tour, rather than rehabilitating her image, has reinforced the perception of a permanent loser's brand by blaming others for past defeats.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ6.7K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$105K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027? — Before Jul 1, 2027

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

$465 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AOC be elected President in 2028?

The market heavily discounts AOC's 2028 presidential prospects despite media speculation, reflecting early primary polls that place her well behind more mainstream Democrats and the historical disadvantage for far-left candidates in general elections.

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts2y