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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 3 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3829 US elections 2702 Foreign politics 410 Political Leader Tenure 340 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 202 Leader Tenure Predictions 115 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 73 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

159 markets · page 3 of 7

Manifold· Play

Open

During a 4 month period, will Lula score a 55%+ approval rating by 2 or more major pooling outlets during his current term?

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

‹ Prev12345…7Next ›

Open

Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?

Yes95¢

No5¢

Yes ≈ 95% chance

$125K Vol▼ 2pts19d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin meet in person in year 2027?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ375 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$92.2K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Zelenskyy outlast Putin as president?

The market strongly favors Putin outlasting Zelenskyy, reflecting the belief that Putin's political survival is less tied to the war's outcome than Zelenskyy's, despite recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil.

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ10.9K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Polymarket

Open

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$50.5K Vol▼ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play🔭 2 venues

Open

Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2027?

Despite Putin's high odds of remaining president through 2027, recent headlines reveal growing external pressure from a key ally (Kazakhstan) and ongoing Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia, suggesting the war's trajectory could destabilize his grip on power.

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ20.1K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Kash Patel out by December 31?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

$311K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Putin die before Trump?

The market heavily favors Putin surviving Trump, but the real story is that recent high-profile deaths of aging American political figures (Mueller, Graham) may be subtly shifting attention to mortality risk on the U.S. side, while Putin's relative isolation and control reduce his near-term jeopardy.

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

Yes61¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

$80.6K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Putin outlive Biden?

Yes85¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

Ɱ14.9K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Yes9¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$2.8M Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If Zelenskyy runs for re-election before 2028, will he win?

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?

Yes41¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

$117K Vol▲ 1pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Macron out by July 31, 2026?

Yes0¢

No100¢

Yes ≈ 0% chance

$24.1K Vol▼ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

If Khamenei or Epstein faked their deaths, will Trump do a backflip, XOR will Putin not release a sex tape, by 2100?

Yes88¢

No12¢

Yes ≈ 88% chance

Ɱ254 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

$12.1K Vol▲ 7pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials after the the next time an Incumbent is elected as president in US?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ235 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Yes7¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$215K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Lula win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ11.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026?

Yes2¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$37.8K Vol▼ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Brazil 2026 Election: Will Lula get more votes than in 2022 (59,563,912) in any round?

Lula's odds of surpassing his 2022 vote total are stuck below 50% because the high bar (59.56 million) requires both a strong turnout and a collapse of support for Flavio Bolsonaro, yet recent polls show Lula gaining ground while also losing young voters, creating a tug-of-war that keeps the market nearly balanced.

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ393 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Zelenskyy # posts July 21 - July 28, 2026?

60-7942¢

11 outcomes

$13.6K Vol▼ 3pts2d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Lula be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ5.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo