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Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 3 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3829 US elections 2702 Foreign politics 410 Political Leader Tenure 340 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 202 Leader Tenure Predictions 115 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 73 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

698 markets · page 3 of 30

Polymarket

Open

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$32.2K Vol▼ 2pts5d

Smarkets

Open

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Next General Election Conservative Leader - Robert Jenrick

Robert Jenrick has defected to Reform UK and been named its finance chief and chancellor pick, making his return to Conservative leadership before the next election extremely improbable — the 2% Yes price reflects a tiny chance of a dramatic reversal, not a live contest.

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

£5.1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will Andy Burnham announce their departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jul 1, 2027? — Before Jul 1, 2027

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$5.1K Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Futuur

Open

Elected Governor of Ceará in 2026

The field is extremely concentrated on Ciro Gomes (67%) despite the headlined races being entirely unrelated—Bangkok, California, Tamil Nadu, and Nigeria—meaning no local Ceará news drives a shift: the biggest recent move is the market's persistent inertia, not any actual event.

Ciro Gomes59¢

4 outcomes

$308 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Berlin State Election Winner

Linke33¢

24 outcomes

$3.1M Vol▲ 2pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will win the 2027 french presidential election

Marine le Pen26¢

17 outcomes

Ɱ29.2K Vol▲ 0pts10mo

Smarkets

Open

Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election - Winner

The field is a near-certain Labour hold, with the only real question being the margin; the single biggest recent shift is the consolidation of Labour support following Andy Burnham's departure, as the by-election is framed as a test of his legacy (The Independent, Jul 25).

Labour99¢

6 outcomes

£3.8K Vol▼ 0pts4d

Kalshi

Open

Reform UK, ≥15%

Yes89¢

No11¢

Yes ≈ 89% chance

$3.8K Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Futuur

Open

Elected Governor of Rio de Janeiro in 2026

The field is extremely concentrated around Eduardo Paes, but the race is fundamentally shaped by the unresolved Supreme Court decision on whether the election will be direct or indirect, which could upend Paes's 80% lead if the method changes.

Eduardo Paes69¢

6 outcomes

$304 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory

Farage 60%+37¢

6 outcomes

$69.5K Vol▲ 1pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

EU dissolves in ....?

Other53¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ30.5K Vol▲ 0pts—

Smarkets

Open

2027 French Presidential Election Winner

The field is moderately concentrated (top three sum 53%) but the biggest recent shift is Marine Le Pen's campaign launch after her ban reduction, which has boosted her odds despite them still lagging her polling strength (The Guardian, Jul 8).

Édouard Philippe26¢

10 outcomes

£3.7K Vol▲ 0pts8mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be out as Prime Minister of Israel before Aug 1, 2026? — Before Aug 1, 2026

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$18K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Futuur

Open

Elected Senators for Rio de Janeiro in 2026

The field is moderately concentrated among three veterans (da Silva, Crivella, Canella), but a recent gubernatorial resignation has jolted the Rio political landscape, creating openings for lower-polling candidates like Carlos Jordy and Mônica Benício to surge if they capture anti-establishment or left-leaning voters.

Benedita da Silva (PT)62¢

7 outcomes

$293 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Polymarket⚡ Moving fast

Open

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Flávio Bolsonaro78¢

32 outcomes

$4.3M Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

In the next UK general election, Will Reform UK and Restore Britain be top 2 in any seat?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ214 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Smarkets

Open

Emmanuel Macron Resignation — Emmanuel Macron To Resign

Despite a wave of high-profile resignations at the Louvre and ongoing political turbulence, Macron has publicly ruled out stepping down, and the market sees a resignation as highly unlikely at 11%.

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

£3.2K Vol▲ 0pts9mo

Kalshi

Open

Benjamin Netanyahu

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

$426K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Futuur

Open

Elected governor for Rio Grande do Sul in 2026

The field is moderately concentrated with three candidates holding 79%, but the race remains unsettled because the top two — Zucco (37%) and Brizola (30%) — represent opposing poles (Bolsonaro-aligned right vs. PT-allied left), leaving the center open for Gabriel Souza (12%) or Edegar Pretto (8%) to consolidate if Eduardo Leite's centrist pitch (Valor International, Mar 16) gains traction or if the PPP/concession pipeline restart (BNamericas, Jun 9) becomes a visible state-level issue.

Luciano Zucco42¢

5 outcomes

$270 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Paraná Governor Election Winner

Sergio Moro82¢

18 outcomes

$28.6K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Smarkets

Open

Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election - Bev Craig To Win

The market is pricing a near-certain Labour hold in the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, reflecting the party's deep local dominance and the absence of a strong challenger, but the real story is whether Bev Craig's policy platform—including wealth tax models and rent controls—could shift the national debate on local governance.

Yes98¢

No2¢

Yes ≈ 98% chance

£3.1K Vol▲ 0pts4d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Reform win less than 50 seats at the next UK General election?

Despite Reform's strong local election performance in May 2026, the market heavily favors them winning 50+ seats in the next general election, but first-past-the-post historically limits third-party seat counts, making such a feat unlikely.

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ41.9K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held

PL79¢

11 outcomes

$2.4K Vol▲ 4pts1y

Futuur

Open

Elected Senators for São Paulo in 2026

The field is concentrated among three frontrunners but remains unusually open for a Senate race, as the Bolsonaro family rift is fragmenting the right-wing vote and leaving room for a second-tier candidate like Márcio França to consolidate the left behind Lula's narrow alliance.

Guilherme Derrite64¢

6 outcomes

$238 Vol▲ 0pts2mo