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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 253 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3965 US elections 2858 Foreign politics 458 Political Leader Tenure 364 Future US Presidents 233 US Political Timelines 206 Leader Tenure Predictions 121 US Political Future 108 Presidential Candidacy 78 Person of the Year Awards 15 Sports & Political Leadership 10

6,216 markets · page 253 of 259

Kalshi

Open

Will Donald Trump or any members of his immediate family or their spouses receive a presidential pardon before Jan 20, 2029?

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

$20.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

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Open

Alex Mashinsky

Despite the FTC settlement and CFTC ban making Mashinsky a less attractive pardon candidate, the 12% Yes odds reflect a non-zero chance that Trump could grant clemency as part of a broader or politically motivated move, but the recent regulatory actions reinforce the strong No baseline.

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$7.5K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Brian Cole Jr.

Brian Cole Jr.'s pardon odds are low because a federal judge has explicitly ruled that Trump's blanket Jan. 6 pardons do not cover his pipe-bomb case, and his trial is now set for February 2027, creating a narrow window for a separate, targeted pardon.

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

$6K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Bill Hwang receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$284 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Bob Menendez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

The 29% odds reflect a market that sees a Trump pardon for a convicted Democratic senator as unlikely, especially with his wife now in prison and no visible advocacy from the White House.

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

$2.6K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Chauvin's current legal strategy is entirely focused on appeals and new trials, not clemency, and President Trump has given no signal of interest in a pardon, keeping odds low despite the possibility of a symbolic 'law and order' gesture.

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

$5.9K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Daniel Hale receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

The market heavily discounts a Trump pardon for whistleblower Daniel Hale, partly because recent obituaries for individuals named Daniel Hale suggest the subject may have died, which would make a pardon impossible.

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$1.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

格雷厄姆之死削弱了共和党内对特朗普的潜在制约，但市场仍对特朗普能否成功自我赦免存疑，因为法律和政治风险依然显著。

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

$50.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Donald Trump Jr.

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

$15.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Do Kwon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

The market heavily discounts a pardon for Do Kwon despite Trump's expansive pardon history, because Kwon is a foreign national convicted of massive fraud in South Korea and the U.S., and the political cost of pardoning a figure tied to the Luna crash likely outweighs any benefit from crypto-industry lobbying.

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

$1.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will DeAndre Way receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

The 13% odds reflect the market's judgment that DeAndre Way's recent state-level weapon charge in Los Angeles is ineligible for a presidential pardon, and his paternity case is civil, leaving little federal basis for a Trump pardon; the slim chance rests on an as-yet-unseen federal conviction or a broad act of clemency.

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$1.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Eric Adams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

The market is pricing a 34% chance of a Trump pardon for Eric Adams, but the real story is that Adams is politically toxic and legally exposed, with his allies going to trial and his administration's audit gaps surfacing, making a pardon less likely despite Trump's history of clemency for allies.

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

$3.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Elizabeth Holmes

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

$1.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Edward Snowden

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

$14.5K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Eric Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Yes53¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

$2.7K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Hunter Biden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Despite Hunter Biden's recent legal victory and public taunts, the market sees a near-zero chance of a Trump pardon, reflecting the political reality that a president is unlikely to pardon a political rival's son, especially amid ongoing partisan tensions.

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$1.7K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Julian Assange

Assange is already free after a plea deal, making a pardon redundant unless Trump seeks to fully erase his conviction, but the 28% odds reflect residual hope that Trump will reward Assange for past WikiLeaks help, while the 72% No reflects the lack of a clear political incentive for a pardon now that he is out of UK custody.

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

$4.5K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Joe Giudice receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

$358 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Jared Kushner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Yes48¢

No52¢

Yes ≈ 48% chance

$5.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Jho Low receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Despite a flurry of Malaysian government denials about Jho Low's alleged visit, the 34% odds of a Trump pardon reflect lingering speculation that a deal could still be struck, but the denials themselves suggest no active negotiations are underway.

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

$1.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Joseph Maldonado

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

$674 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Jose Muyet receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Jose Muyet is a long-incarcerated figure from a 1990s Bronx gang case, and his pardon campaign is driven by a progressive advocacy group, but the 13% odds reflect the extreme rarity of presidential pardons for non-celebrity, non-cooperative convicts with violent-crime histories.

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$1.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Justin Sun receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Despite Justin Sun's massive crypto wealth and business milestones, the 23% 'Yes' odds reflect low expectation of a Trump pardon due to Sun's foreign nationality and lack of U.S. political engagement, yet his increasing influence in crypto-aligned political projects could shift the calculus.

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

$1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will JD Vance receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

$2.9K Vol▲ 0pts2y