Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
6,216 markets · page 246 of 259
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
5 outcomes
McMaster's appointment of the late senator's sister to fill the seat effectively signals he is not running, and her potential candidacy for a full term further cements the low odds.
Yes ≈ 96% chance
Lindsey Graham's sudden death created an open Senate seat, but Nikki Haley's odds remain at 3% because she has shown no interest and is instead focused on foreign policy and national security, making a last-minute announcement before the Aug 11 deadline highly unlikely.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Sen. Lindsey Graham's sudden death and his widow Darline Graham's potential entry have reshaped the race, slashing Mace's odds to 21% as traders price in a tougher primary path and her lack of key endorsements, not just her own decision timeline.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Scott Bessent has publicly and unequivocally ruled out a Senate run, and the market reflects near-certainty that he will not enter the race before the August 11 deadline, despite his elevated national profile from Treasury service.
Yes ≈ 1% chance