Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
4,992 markets · page 201 of 208
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 68% chance
Despite the FTC settlement and CFTC ban making Mashinsky a less attractive pardon candidate, the 12% Yes odds reflect a non-zero chance that Trump could grant clemency as part of a broader or politically motivated move, but the recent regulatory actions reinforce the strong No baseline.
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Brian Cole Jr.'s pardon odds are low because a federal judge has explicitly ruled that Trump's blanket Jan. 6 pardons do not cover his pipe-bomb case, and his trial is now set for February 2027, creating a narrow window for a separate, targeted pardon.
Yes ≈ 18% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
The 29% odds reflect a market that sees a Trump pardon for a convicted Democratic senator as unlikely, especially with his wife now in prison and no visible advocacy from the White House.
Yes ≈ 30% chance
Chauvin's current legal strategy is entirely focused on appeals and new trials, not clemency, and President Trump has given no signal of interest in a pardon, keeping odds low despite the possibility of a symbolic 'law and order' gesture.
Yes ≈ 29% chance
The market heavily discounts a Trump pardon for whistleblower Daniel Hale, partly because recent obituaries for individuals named Daniel Hale suggest the subject may have died, which would make a pardon impossible.
Yes ≈ 13% chance
格雷厄姆之死削弱了共和党内对特朗普的潜在制约，但市场仍对特朗普能否成功自我赦免存疑，因为法律和政治风险依然显著。
Yes ≈ 57% chance
Yes ≈ 60% chance
The 13% odds reflect the market's judgment that DeAndre Way's recent state-level weapon charge in Los Angeles is ineligible for a presidential pardon, and his paternity case is civil, leaving little federal basis for a Trump pardon; the slim chance rests on an as-yet-unseen federal conviction or a broad act of clemency.
Yes ≈ 13% chance
The market is pricing a 34% chance of a Trump pardon for Eric Adams, but the real story is that Adams is politically toxic and legally exposed, with his allies going to trial and his administration's audit gaps surfacing, making a pardon less likely despite Trump's history of clemency for allies.
Yes ≈ 34% chance