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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 17 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3867 US elections 2746 Foreign politics 422 Political Leader Tenure 349 Future US Presidents 225 US Political Timelines 203 Leader Tenure Predictions 117 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 74 Person of the Year Awards 13 Sports & Political Leadership 10

417 markets · page 17 of 18

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Destiny ever run for president of the United States?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ876 Vol▲ 0pts—

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‹ Prev1…15161718Next ›

Open

Will Barron Trump ever be elected President?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ940 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will the House of Representatives begin an impeachment of Donald Trump during his second term?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ3.9K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

Will Thomas Massie say Trump should be impeached before the end of 2026?

Yes18¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ74 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky run for President of the United States by 2060?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ3K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will Jason Calacanis ever be elected President?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ540 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will China also kidnap the president of Taiwan in 2026?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ683 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will William Ruto serve full term as the president of Kenya

Yes84¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 84% chance

Ɱ740 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will an AI become president of the United States before 2040?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ860 Vol▲ 0pts14y

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Taylor Swift runs for president of the USA before 2037

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ5.1K Vol▲ 0pts10y

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Open

Will Ivanka Trump be the first female elected President?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump be elected President in 2028?

The market sees a Biden or Trump 2028 run as extremely unlikely due to age, legal baggage, and the GOP's shift away from Trump, but the 2% Yes price reflects residual tail risk from a fractured field or a surprise comeback.

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ5.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

Will the next president (of the USA) last the full term?

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

Ɱ2.9K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

Will Michelle Bolsonaro either be elected president of Brazil or be the runner up in the 2026 presidential election?

The market heavily discounts Michelle Bolsonaro’s chances because her husband’s political heir, Flavio Bolsonaro, is the active candidate and is mired in scandal and trailing Lula; no headline or event has elevated her as a prospective candidate.

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

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Open

Will Volodymyr Zelensky be killed or captured while being the president of Ukraine?

Despite a brutal war grinding into its fifth year, the market assigns only a 16% chance that Zelensky is killed or captured, reflecting confidence in Ukrainian security protocols and the absence of any direct threat to the president in recent headlines.

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ593 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ3K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will Donald J. Trump be impeached by the House of Representatives before Jan 20, 2029?

The near-even odds reflect deep Democratic indecision on a third Trump impeachment and active Republican efforts to void past impeachments, making the outcome less about new scandals than about political will and House control.

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

Ɱ169 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will Barron Trump be elected President in 2040?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ711 Vol▲ 0pts14y

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Will Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will MrBeast be elected President or Vice President of the United States before 2100?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will SBF ever be elected President?

Sam Bankman-Fried's presidential prospects hinge entirely on a Trump pardon, but even that would leave him as a convicted felon with no political base, making his election virtually impossible.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ689 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will the Spanish ex-president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be tried because of his involvement with Maduro’s government?

Despite past high-level scandals linking Spanish officials to Maduro's government, no legal proceedings have been initiated against ex-President Zapatero, and the only recent headline about political accountability (PM's brother banned) does not involve him, making a trial improbable.

Yes35¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ163 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

Who will be the next president of France?

Marine Le Pen26¢

36 outcomes

Ɱ41.4K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will Kamala Harris ever be elected President?

The market is overwhelmingly pessimistic about Kamala Harris ever becoming president, pricing in a 93% chance she never wins, which reflects her 2024 loss and diminished political capital rather than any recent event.

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ6.3K Vol▲ 0pts—