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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 15 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3978 US elections 2874 Foreign politics 460 Political Leader Tenure 364 Future US Presidents 235 US Political Timelines 206 Leader Tenure Predictions 121 US Political Future 111 Presidential Candidacy 78 Person of the Year Awards 15 Sports & Political Leadership 10

11,190 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 15 of 417

Futuur

Open

Winner of Clacton’s by-election

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

▲ 0pts17d

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev1…1314151617…417Next ›

Karoline / Leavitt

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$30.7K Vol▲ 0pts1d

Polymarket

Open

Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$106K Vol▼ 1pts4d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ152 Vol▲ 1pts2y

InsightX

Open

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Despite tensions and war preparations, the 12% invasion probability reflects a market that sees China as still unwilling to pay the prohibitive military and economic costs of invading Taiwan by 2027, especially as Beijing may use hybrid attacks to avoid outright invasion.

Yes12¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$2.2M Vol▲ 0pts1y

Smarkets

Open

2026 Swedish General Election - Most Seats

The field is extremely concentrated, with the Social Democrats at 97% after a June 2026 poll showed the centre-left opposition holding its lead, a sharp reversal from the 2022 cliffhanger where the right-wing bloc narrowly won.

Social Democrats97¢

3 outcomes

£2 Vol▼ 0pts1mo

Futuur

Open

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo75¢

4 outcomes

▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Jul 2026?

098¢

5 outcomes

$533K Vol▲ 1pts6d

Polymarket⚡ Moving fast

Open

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$39M Vol▼ 0pts5mo

InsightX

Open

Will Alberta join the US?

The odds are near zero because there is no serious political movement, no secessionist referendum, and no U.S. annexation offer; the recent headlines instead show Alberta cooperating with other Canadian provinces on agriculture, alcohol sales, and pipelines.

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$2.2M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ862 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Smarkets

Open

Andy Burnham Exit Date - Year — Andy Burnham Exit Date - 2026

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

£2 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act? — Before Aug 8, 2026

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

$83.7K Vol▼ 6pts13d

InsightX

Open

Crude Oil all time high by...?

The field is extremely diffuse with only 22% of probability assigned to the top two candidates, and the biggest recent shift is a sharp drop in Brent crude from above $100 to $96.89 on July 24, unwinding the risk premium that had built up during the US-Iran war (Crypto Briefing, Jul 24).

December 3114¢

2 outcomes

$2.1M Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ever become the President of the USA?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts—

Smarkets

Open

State Senate Elections — Texas Senate Election Winner

The Texas Senate race has tightened dramatically, with Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico now effectively tied, driven by Paxton's fundraising surge and Talarico's pivot to attacking Paxton's scandals.

Republican56¢

2 outcomes

£1 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Aug 1, 2026? — Before Aug 1, 2026

With only six days until the Aug 1 deadline, the odds of a proof-of-citizenship voting law passing are nearly zero, reflecting both the legislative calendar and recent judicial blocks.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$598K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Polymarket

Open

Elon Musk # tweets in July 2026?

840-87928¢

51 outcomes

$981K Vol▲ 11pts5d

InsightX

Open

Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

The market is extremely fragmented with no candidate above 1%, and the biggest recent shift is the continued erosion of confidence in a US-Iran deal following the US-Saudi nuclear deal and the fragile state of the cease-fire (NYT, Jul 25; BBC, Jul 23).

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf1¢

2 outcomes

$2M Vol▼ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a Democrat win the 2028 Presidential Election?

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ52.5K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Smarkets

Open

Quebec General Election Winner

PQ71¢

3 outcomes

£1 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Who are you with / Where are you from

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$25.3K Vol▲ 0pts1d

InsightX

Open

Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?

The field has collapsed to a binary choice between two dates, November 2 and July 17, after Graham Platner's withdrawal (NBC News, Jul 11) and the subsequent Democratic pivot to a new candidate (RTHK News, Jul 25), but the messy primary chaos (WCAX, Jul 22) keeps the race open to late surprises.

November 2100¢

2 outcomes

$2M Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$290K Vol▲ 1pts2mo