Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
5,021 markets · page 12 of 210
The race is overwhelmingly tilted toward the Republican frontrunner, but an internal GOP power struggle—highlighted by Politico—could fracture the party's unity and create an opening for Democrats, who currently hold only 14% odds.
3 outcomes
Yes ≈ 30% chance
Yes ≈ 61% chance
Yes ≈ 40% chance
5 outcomes
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Yes ≈ 75% chance
The field is heavily concentrated on exactly two losses, with the 68% probability for 2 incumbents losing reflecting a wave that has already claimed several House members but has yet to fully materialize in Senate primaries, making the 31% for 3 losses the key battleground between a contained anti-incumbent mood and a broader rout.
3 outcomes
The field is highly concentrated in two scenarios—Republican President/Republican Senate/Democratic House (43%) and Republican President/Democratic Senate/Democratic House (42%)—with a combined 85% probability, leaving only a 14% chance of a Republican trifecta and negligible odds for any Democratic presidency outcome, reflecting a polarized electorate where the presidency and Senate lean Republican but the House is a toss-up.
8 outcomes
The market sees a real possibility that Netanyahu leaves office by year's end, driven by an alarming election backdrop and a shifting international posture even as he publicly shows no sign of stepping down.
Yes ≈ 44% chance
Yes ≈ 95% chance
Yes ≈ 82% chance
The field has collapsed to a two-way race after Democrats replaced their imploded nominee with state Senate President Troy Jackson, yet the 67% Democrat odds reflect a party that is still repairing internal damage while the Republican incumbent Susan Collins remains a proven crossover vote-getter.
13 outcomes
Yes ≈ 76% chance