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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 10 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3867 US elections 2746 Foreign politics 422 Political Leader Tenure 349 Future US Presidents 225 US Political Timelines 203 Leader Tenure Predictions 117 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 74 Person of the Year Awards 13 Sports & Political Leadership 10

261 markets · page 10 of 11

Manifold· Play

Open

The first female US president will be Republican

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

Ɱ3.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will JD Vance "betray" Donald Trump?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ22.1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will a black woman become president of the United States before the end of 2081?

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

Ɱ135 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will a member of Generation X become president of the United States?

Yes88¢

No12¢

Yes ≈ 88% chance

Ɱ340 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will any current or former US president go to space before 2030?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ657 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Who will be US President on January 1, 2029?

Donald Trump80¢

11 outcomes

Ɱ15.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will a US president be impeached in the next 40 years?

Yes92¢

No8¢

Yes ≈ 92% chance

Ɱ2.4K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Dwarkesh Patel interview a current or former US President before 2027?

Yes14¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will JD Vance shave the beard anytime before the 2028 election?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ7.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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US president makes official announcement confirming UFOs or extraterrestrials before 2033?

Despite the Pentagon's historic release of UFO files in May 2026 and ongoing official hints, the market remains skeptical (No at 62%) because past disclosures have stopped short of a definitive presidential confirmation, and no president has ever made such an announcement.

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts6y

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Was the first female US President born before 2000?

The market strongly expects the first female US president to be born before 2000, likely because the most prominent female candidates (e.g., Hillary Clinton, born 1947) are already over 50, and a first-term president typically takes office in their 40s–60s, meaning a first female president born after 2000 would be at most 26 in 2026—implausibly young for a major-party nominee.

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will the next President of the United States die in office?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ33.7K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?

Other US citizen38¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ14.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

Ɱ398 Vol▲ 0pts—

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JD Vance and Erika Kirk run for president and VP in 2028?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ6.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will Donald Trump be president of the United States on 12/31/2027?

Yes88¢

No12¢

Yes ≈ 88% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will Destiny ever run for president of the United States?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ876 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Trump is US President on December 31, 2026?

The market is pricing Trump's continued presidency as nearly certain, but the real story is that this reflects a lack of credible near-term mechanisms for removal rather than broad public confidence, with recent headlines showing active governance alongside persistent political and legal controversies.

Yes93¢

No7¢

Yes ≈ 93% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will JD Vance resign as US Vice President during Trump's second term?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ3.6K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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MARCO RUBIO WILL WIN 2028 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ732 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will Eliezer Yudkowsky run for President of the United States by 2060?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ3K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will a person under the age of 60 be elected US President in 2028?

The market reflects a slim belief that the next president will be under 60, driven by a growing public age debate despite the strong possibility of an older candidate like Trump winning again.

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will any current or former US President or member of the Cabinet identify as a furry by 2039?

The market sees a near-zero chance of a US President or Cabinet member identifying as a furry, reflecting the complete absence of historical precedent or any credible signals in current political discourse.

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts12y

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Will an AI become president of the United States before 2040?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ860 Vol▲ 0pts14y