Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
604 markets · page 4 of 26
Despite a May spike, June's sharp cooling in inflation has tilted the market toward a below-0.3% July CPI print, but the odds remain near historical averages as energy volatility could reverse the trend.
Yes ≈ 35% chance
Yes ≈ 97% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 28% chance
Yes ≈ 86% chance
Yes ≈ 39% chance
The market strongly favors inflation reaching 6% before 0%, driven by persistent global price pressures and speculation that the Fed's recent actions are rekindling inflation rather than containing it, though the high odds may overstate the risk given a potential oil-price collapse from the Iran deal.
Yes ≈ 79% chance
Yes ≈ 30% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Yes ≈ 95% chance
Yes ≈ 30% chance