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Economics prediction markets & live odds — page 3 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Economics prediction markets

Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.

🔭 Compare economics odds across venues →

All Markets & equities 726 Growth & recession 286 Inflation 180 Monetary policy 107 Largest Companies 88 Jobs & labor 61 Gasoline Prices 43 Bitcoin Price Levels 15 Currency Exchange Rates 14 Headline 8 Gold Price Levels 7 Fiscal & trade 6

130 markets · page 3 of 6

Kalshi

Open

Will above -25000 jobs be added in August 2026? — Above -25,000

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

$515 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

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Will more than 200,000 US truck drivers lose their jobs by 2028?

The market sees only a 20% chance that more than 200,000 US truck drivers will lose their jobs by 2028, reflecting skepticism that the Trump administration's crackdown on immigrant truckers—which has affected thousands—will scale to that level, and that autonomous trucking will not displace enough drivers in that timeframe.

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Will above 0 jobs be added in August 2026? — Above 0

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

$856 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Al take 25% of human jobs before 2100?

Despite a flurry of AI-related layoffs and Hollywood workers training their own replacements, the narrative is shifting away from a 'jobs apocalypse' as key figures like Sam Altman backtrack and reports emphasize complementarity, yet the market still prices a 62% chance of 25% job loss by 2100, suggesting persistent long-term fear outweighs recent reassurances.

Yes62¢

No38¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

Ɱ179 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will above 10000 jobs be added in August 2026? — Above 10,000

Yes88¢

No12¢

Yes ≈ 88% chance

$199 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be enough hardware resources by 2040 for AI to take 1% of all jobs in the world if other factors allow it?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ136 Vol▲ 0pts13y

Kalshi

Open

Will above 100000 jobs be added in August 2026? — Above 100,000

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

$327 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will above 125000 jobs be added in August 2026? — Above 125,000

Yes39¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

$503 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI take 50% of human jobs before 2050?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ45 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will above 20000 jobs be added in August 2026? — Above 20,000

Yes85¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

$72 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Al take 25% of human jobs before 2050?

Despite headlines of AI-related layoffs at companies like Oracle and GitLab (Business Insider, Jun 22), the prevailing view is that AI will augment rather than eliminate most jobs, as echoed by Sam Altman (Time, May 26) and CNN (May 10), keeping the 'Yes' probability at just 29%.

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will above 30000 jobs be added in August 2026? — Above 30,000

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

$147 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030?

Despite AI coding tools like Devin writing 89% of code, the market doubts a halving of human front-end engineers by 2030, likely because front-end work involves user experience and design that AI has not mastered, and the timeline is short.

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Kalshi

Open

Will above 40000 jobs be added in August 2026? — Above 40,000

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

$480 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will above 50000 jobs be added in August 2026? — Above 50,000

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

$628 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will >97% of all jobs be fully automated before the year 2075?

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ16.4K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will above 60000 jobs be added in August 2026? — Above 60,000

Yes53¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

$582 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI automate all remote jobs that do not require a legal person by Jan 1st 2027?

The market overwhelmingly expects that AI will not fully automate all remote jobs not requiring a legal person by early 2027, despite expert predictions and regulatory concerns; the real story is the gap between advancing AI capabilities and the practical, legal, and labor barriers that make a complete wipeout within six months implausible.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ6.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will above 70000 jobs be added in August 2026? — Above 70,000

Yes52¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

$362 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Al take 25% of human jobs before 2030?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ597 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will above 80000 jobs be added in August 2026? — Above 80,000

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

$148 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will all jobs become obsolete by 2030

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will above 90000 jobs be added in August 2026? — Above 90,000

Yes48¢

No52¢

Yes ≈ 48% chance

$153 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will above 100000 jobs be added in July 2026? — Above 100,000

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

$18.9K Vol▲ 0pts12d