Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
605 markets · page 3 of 26
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 85% chance
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Yes ≈ 98% chance
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Yes ≈ 71% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 77% chance
Yes ≈ 83% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Despite the Fed's dovish signals and a cooling labor market, persistent price increases in essentials like food (Star Tribune, Jul 4) and past egg price inflation (CNBC, Jun 30) keep the market betting that annual US inflation will remain at or above 3% in 2026.
Yes ≈ 80% chance
Yes ≈ 98% chance
The market sees a 60% chance the Clay Foundation will not adjust for inflation, likely reflecting skepticism that a foundation would voluntarily reduce its real spending power without a clear external push.
Yes ≈ 40% chance
Yes ≈ 13% chance