Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
12,234 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 11 of 417
29 outcomes
Yes ≈ 5% chance
The market heavily doubts that Jose Luis Ricon, a Spanish figure, can single-handedly boost Spain's GDP by over 1% by 2035, reflecting the extreme difficulty of attributing such a large macroeconomic shift to one person in a developed economy.
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 80% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Yes ≈ 32% chance
Yes ≈ 36% chance
Yes ≈ 82% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 73% chance
The market is pricing a near-zero chance of WTI hitting $65 in July 2026 because oil has already recovered from a brief sub-$70 dip in late June and is now being pushed higher by escalating Iran conflict and rising mortgage rates, which signal inflationary pressure rather than demand destruction.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance