Bitcoin, Ethereum, and token price and protocol questions, aggregated as live odds across venues.
4,410 markets · page 4 of 184
The field is extremely narrow with only two high-probability thresholds, indicating strong consensus that GRVT will achieve at least a $100M FDV, but the Polymarket dispute risk on a similar bet (Crypto Briefing, Jul 17) introduces a tail risk that could challenge the near-certain odds.
2 outcomes
The market sees a coinflip on HYPE hitting $100 by 2027, but the real story is the disconnect between a surge in speculative retail buzz and a lack of fundamental protocol adoption milestones since the June ETF all-time high.
Yes ≈ 38% chance
Bearish predictions and a sustained market downturn have pushed odds to 81% that Bitcoin will dip below $50K before ever reaching $200K, reflecting a consensus that the current correction is not over.
Yes ≈ 81% chance
With only five days left in July and Bitcoin trading far below $80,000, the market is effectively resolved to No, making the 0% Yes odds a reflection of near-certainty rather than sentiment.
Yes ≈ 0% chance
40 outcomes
The field is extremely diffuse, with no candidate above 5% and the top three summing only 3%, indicating traders see no clear price target as likely; the biggest recent shift is the lack of any movement above 5%, reflecting that bullish headlines like Solana's record $15B stablecoin market cap (Pluang, Jul 20) and tokenization records (Yahoo Finance, Jun 22) have not coalesced into a consensus price bet. The field's openness suggests traders are waiting for a catalyst to break the stalemate, not that any single outcome is favored. The single biggest recent shift is the absence of a shift—odds have remained flat despite mixed news, with a $1.65M exploit (TradingView, Jul 20) and a partnership with SBI in Japan (Yahoo Finance, Jul 14) failing to move the needle.
2 outcomes
The market sees a roughly even chance that Kraken and Aave confirm an acquisition by September 30, despite Kraken's denial of a specific $385M stake deal; the odds reflect a belief that negotiations are ongoing but face structural hurdles over token versus equity valuation.
Yes ≈ 55% chance
Yes ≈ 63% chance
Bitcoin is trading far below $68,000 on the resolution date, making a Yes outcome impossible; the market is effectively resolved to No, with no chance of a last-minute spike to the target.
Yes ≈ 0% chance
The field is extremely thin and low-confidence: only two candidates are listed, and their combined probability is just 2%, meaning traders see virtually no chance of XRP hitting either $1.40 or $3.00 in July. The biggest recent shift is the emergence of bullish analyst predictions, such as a $15 target (AOL.com, Jul 25) and a $4 five-year forecast (AOL.com, Jul 24), which have not translated into market movement, suggesting skepticism about near-term timing.
2 outcomes
Bitcoin has already slipped from the top 10 to 13th largest asset by market cap, and the market sees a 26% chance it could fall out of the top 20 by end of summer 2026, driven by persistent capital rotation into AI and precious metals.
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Yes ≈ 85% chance
Despite a 4-point drop in Yes probability, the market is pricing a 96% chance that Bitcoin avoids a 10% dip to $57,500 in July, with recent rejection at key resistance and weak spot demand reinforcing the No stance, but long-term holder buying and historical patterns suggest a deeper correction is possible.
Yes ≈ 4% chance
The field is extremely concentrated on just two price levels—$62,000 and $68,000—with a combined probability of only 3%, meaning the market sees almost no chance of Bitcoin settling in any specific range this week, a sharp contrast to the recent rally to $66,000 on July 21 (CoinDesk). The biggest recent shift is the collapse of any probability above 5%, as the market has priced out the possibility of a sustained breakout despite the ETF inflow surge.
2 outcomes
80 outcomes