Crypto prediction markets

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

✨ The field is extremely diffuse, with the top three candidates collectively commanding only 26% and no single outcome above 18%, indicating that traders see the token launch as unlikely within any specific quarter of 2026. The biggest recent shift is the December 31, 2026 option pulling ahead to 18%, likely reflecting a general expectation of delay rather than a specific catalyst.

✨ The field is highly concentrated on Trump-linked tokens (TRUMP, WLFI, MELANIA sum to 117%), but the key shift is that TRUMP's lead has widened after reports of his $1.4 billion crypto profit (The Guardian, Jul 16) and investor losses (ABC7, Jul 6), reinforcing the narrative that insiders benefit most.

✨ The field is completely concentrated on the >$30M and >$25M thresholds, both at 100%, because the Credible Finance ICO raised $18M against a $4M target (Crypto Briefing, Jul 13), making those commitments a near-certainty; the only open question is whether the total will exceed $30M, but no headline suggests a catalyst for that.

✨ The market overwhelmingly expects an OpenAI IPO before Bitcoin reaches $250k, a view reinforced by recent Bitcoin price weakness and negative sentiment from crypto crashes and SpaceX-related headwinds, even though no specific OpenAI IPO catalyst is mentioned in the provided headlines.

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 87% chance

✨ The market heavily discounts a Bitcoin breakout above $67.5k in the next six days, despite cooling inflation and a recent price rally, because persistent weak spot demand and uncertainty over Fed policy direction keep buyers cautious.

Yes ≈ 24% chance

✨ The market is overwhelmingly betting on a non-specified exchange (OTHER at 92%) because Kraken's reported $400M in spot liquidity (Crypto Briefing, Jul 8) dwarfs the known figures of named candidates, and Binance's exit from Europe (Yahoo Finance, Jul 6) removes a major competitor, but the remaining 14% split between OKX and Coinbase leaves room for a surprise if any of them releases a higher liquidity figure before the deadline.

✨ The market is essentially a coin flip because Binance's recent launches have been stock and pre-IPO perpetuals, not crypto ones, making a new top-30 crypto perp by July 31 a plausible but unconfirmed shift.

Yes ≈ 51% chance

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Yes ≈ 51% chance

✨ The market is pricing a low probability of SOL falling below $70 by July 31, despite a recent uptick in Yes odds, because the price is currently above $73.56 and the key support zone at $65-$71 has held for weeks, making a sharp drop within 10 days unlikely without a major catalyst.

Yes ≈ 37% chance

✨ Despite repeated $150B total crypto market cap losses, altcoin market cap has not approached $150B, suggesting the threshold is far below current levels and the market sees a severe crash as unlikely within 18 months.

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 44% chance