Bitcoin, Ethereum, and token price and protocol questions, aggregated as live odds across venues.
39 markets · page 1 of 2
Yes ≈ 24% chance
The field is extremely diffuse, with the top three candidates collectively commanding only 26% and no single outcome above 18%, indicating that traders see the token launch as unlikely within any specific quarter of 2026. The biggest recent shift is the December 31, 2026 option pulling ahead to 18%, likely reflecting a general expectation of delay rather than a specific catalyst.
3 outcomes
Yes ≈ 17% chance
The market overwhelmingly expects an OpenAI IPO before Bitcoin reaches $250k, a view reinforced by recent Bitcoin price weakness and negative sentiment from crypto crashes and SpaceX-related headwinds, even though no specific OpenAI IPO catalyst is mentioned in the provided headlines.
Yes ≈ 82% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Yes ≈ 68% chance
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 32% chance
Yes ≈ 50% chance
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Yes ≈ 25% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Yes ≈ 39% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance