Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $200.01 by Dec 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 11% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 11% right now.
The 11% Yes odds reflect a market that sees a catastrophic supply disruption as the only plausible path to $200 oil, but current prices and historical precedent make that a long shot.
📊 Base rate: Since WTI futures began trading in 1983, the front-month settle price has never exceeded $150, making a $200 settlement historically unprecedented in over four decades.
What's driving it
- • Recent escalation of Middle East tensions, particularly Trump's declaration that the Iran peace deal is 'over' (Reuters, Jul 8), has pushed crude prices higher but still far from $200.
- • Oil prices briefly hit their highest since mid-June on supply fears (finance.biggo.com, Jul 21), yet the gap to $200 remains enormous, keeping Yes odds low.
- • The market's 89% No reflects the lack of any credible near-term catalyst that could drive prices to more than double from current levels.
The case for YES
- • A full-scale Iran conflict that disrupts the Strait of Hormuz could send WTI above $200 on supply panic, as seen in the 3% spike on Iran war concerns (Reuters, May 18).
- • A combination of OPEC+ production cuts, a global economic rebound, and a major geopolitical crisis could create a perfect storm for a brief spike above $200.
- • The resolution only requires the maximum settle price to exceed $200.01 at any point, so even a one-day panic spike would suffice.
The case for NO
- • Current WTI prices are around $80-90 (based on recent Robinhood data), requiring a 150% increase that has no historical precedent in the futures market.
- • OPEC+ has spare capacity and could increase supply to cap prices, as seen in the choppy trade and lower settle on May 13 (WSJ).
- • Global demand concerns and potential economic slowdowns limit the likelihood of a sustained rally to $200.
What to watch
- • Any new diplomatic initiative on Iran (e.g., UN-mediated talks) would reduce supply fears and push Yes odds lower.
- • A confirmed military strike or blockade in the Persian Gulf would sharply increase Yes odds.
- • The next OPEC+ meeting (expected later in 2026) could either cut or increase production, directly affecting price trajectory.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $200 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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