How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
10 markets · 5mo
The market sees a roughly 1-in-3 chance of WTI hitting $120 by year-end 2026, with odds dropping sharply above that level, implying traders expect supply disruptions or demand shocks to be limited and temporary rather than sustained.
📊 Base rate: Since 2000, WTI has closed above $120 in only three calendar years (2008, 2011, 2012), giving a historical prior of about 12% for any given year, which is well below the current 33% implied probability for the $120 threshold.
What's driving it
- • The steep drop in odds from $120 (33% Yes) to $150 (15% Yes) suggests the market sees a hard ceiling from potential OPEC+ spare capacity or demand destruction above $120, though no specific headline explains this gap.
- • The 87% No on $180 indicates near-zero belief in a repeat of the 2008 spike, likely reflecting ample global inventories and slower Chinese demand growth, but no recent catalyst is cited.
- • The consistent 66-87% No across all thresholds implies traders are pricing in a base case of stable supply and moderate demand, with no single headline driving a shift.
The bullish case
- • A sudden escalation of geopolitical tensions in a major producing region, such as a new conflict in the Middle East or sanctions on a key exporter, could cut supply and push prices above $120.
- • A faster-than-expected global economic recovery or a supply outage from underinvestment in new production could tighten the market, lifting WTI toward the upper thresholds.
- • If OPEC+ maintains or deepens production cuts through 2026, combined with rising demand from a cold winter or industrial rebound, prices could breach $120.
The bearish case
- • The high probability of No across all levels reflects expectations that OPEC+ will gradually increase output to prevent prices from spiking, as seen in their recent policy statements.
- • Slowing economic growth in China and Europe could cap demand, keeping WTI below $120 even if supply is disrupted, as the market has absorbed similar shocks before.
- • A surge in U.S. shale production or a release of strategic petroleum reserves could add supply quickly, preventing any sustained move above $120.
What to watch
- • OPEC+ meeting on September 4, 2026, where any decision to cut or boost output could shift odds; a surprise cut would push Yes odds higher, while a larger-than-expected increase would strengthen No.
- • U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision on September 17, 2026; a rate cut could boost demand expectations and lift oil prices, while a hold or hike would reinforce the No case.
- • Release of the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook on August 11, 2026; a significant revision to global demand or supply forecasts would move all thresholds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
$200.01 or above
The 11% Yes odds reflect a market that sees a catastrophic supply disruption as the only plausible path to $200 oil, but current prices and historical precedent make that a long shot.
Yes ≈ 11% chance
$180.01 or above
Despite escalating Middle East supply fears and a brief price spike to the highest since mid-June, WTI crude remains far from the $180 threshold, which would shatter all-time records; the 12% odds reflect a market pricing in tail risk from geopolitical disruption rather than a baseline expectation.
Yes ≈ 12% chance
$160.01 or above
The 15% Yes odds signal that the market sees the recent Iran-driven oil spike as temporary and insufficient to reach the $160 threshold, betting instead on a capped upside due to spare capacity and demand concerns.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
$150.01 or above
The market is pricing a 19% chance of WTI hitting $150+ by year-end 2026, reflecting a real but contained geopolitical risk premium from Middle East tensions, but not a full-blown supply crisis scenario.
Yes ≈ 19% chance
$140.01 or above
The market heavily discounts a $140+ oil spike by end-2026 despite recent geopolitical jolts, because the current WTI price (~$72) is far from that threshold and the macro backdrop includes a recent 20% monthly crash that suggests ample spare capacity and demand weakness.
Yes ≈ 22% chance
$135.01 or above
Despite recent geopolitical spikes from Middle East supply fears, the market assigns only a 24% chance that WTI front-month settles above $135 by year-end, reflecting skepticism that temporary war premiums will sustain into a lasting price breakout.
Yes ≈ 24% chance
$130.01 or above
Despite repeated geopolitical scares from the Iran conflict, the market assigns only a 27% chance that WTI front-month will settle above $130 by year-end, suggesting traders see the recent price spikes as temporary and expect supply/demand fundamentals to cap prices below that threshold.
Yes ≈ 30% chance
$125.01 or above
The 32% odds for WTI hitting $125 by year-end reflect a market pricing in a real but contained geopolitical risk premium, where a single supply shock could push prices past the threshold, but structural demand concerns and potential diplomatic off-ramps cap the probability well below even money.
Yes ≈ 32% chance
$120.01 or above
The market is pricing a 36% chance of WTI hitting $120+ by year-end, reflecting a tug-of-war between geopolitical supply fears and the lack of a sustained price breakout despite recent spikes.
Yes ≈ 35% chance
$115.01 or above
Odds jumped 4 points in 24 hours after the Iran peace deal collapsed, but reaching $115 from ~$72 still requires a 60%+ rally — a tail event that depends on a full-blown supply crisis rather than just the current premium.
Yes ≈ 40% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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